Double Dutch, 23rd June 2015
Le Notre showed his inexperience at Wolverhampton yesterday, firstly by being slow away from the stalls and then pulling hard and running green, but showed signs of future ability as he managed to stay on into third place.
He was beaten by just over six lengths in the end, with our first pick Zamperini landing the spoils at a well supported 11/8.
Unfortunately that’s as good as it got and we were well beaten at Windsor later in the evening. Tilstarr and Dutch S finished 4th and 7th of the 7 runners, beaten by 3.5 and 9.5 lengths respectively to end our hopes of a winning start to the week.
Monday’s results were as follows:
Zamperini : WON at 11/8 (adv 2/1)
Le Notre : 3rd at 2/1 (adv 7/2)
Tilstarr : 4th at 3/1 (adv 11/4)
Dutch S : 7th at 5/2 (adv 3/1)
Results to date:
604 winning selections from 2127 = 28.40%
190 winning bets in 551 days = 34.48%
P/L : +110.58pts (+10.04% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Tuesday’s chosen races are as follows…
By no means the best race on the card, but one that should offer Duke of Yorkshire some reward for his recent good/improving form. He has finished third and then second in his last two outings, both here at Beverley and both at 1m2f, so we know he gets the track. He has been staying on quite strongly towards the finish, which suggests the step back up to 1m4f is the right thing to do now.
This is also backed up by the fact that his wins to date have been at 1m4f and 1m6f and off marks of 65. He’s now rated 62 and looks weighted to finally get his nose back in front, which probably would have happened last time out, had he not run into the in-form Tin Pan Alley. If you think Duke of Yorkshire can go one better today, you can back him at 3/1 BOG.
Slightly ahead of him in the market is current 11/4 BOG favourite Gang Warfare, who should come on for having had a first run for new handler Simon Crisford almost four weeks ago at Sandown. That came some 225 days after his last run for Olly Pears and although beaten into 6th place of 13, he acquitted himself well enough to get within 5 lengths of the winner.
He was staying on well at the finish of that 1m2f contest and doing all his best work in the closing stages, having been outpaced in the midsection of the race, suggesting that he, too, would be better off stepping up to today’s 1m4f. He’s entitled to be fitter/stronger for having had the run and if Simon’s different approach has eked any further improvement from him, then Gang Warfare could very well get off the mark today.
John Ferguson’s runners are in good nick at present, consistently averaging around a 30% strike rate and allied to the yard’s 5/17 record over hurdles here, any Ferguson runner at Newton Abbot is worth a second look. As it happens, if the team want to take any prize money home tonight, they’ll have to do it via Dubai Prince, their sole runner of the day.
They do, however fare very well on those 1-runner days and in Dubai Prince, they have a horse with excellent ground speed (dual winner in Gr3 flat contests at 7 & 9f) that made the transition to hurdling with ease. He’s already won three times over timber, been deemed good enough to contest a Grade 1 last summer and caught the eye when finishing third at Stratford a little over three weeks ago.
He was only beaten by just over two lengths having been headed at the last when tiring, which he was entitled to do after an absence of 303 days. He’ll strip fitter for the run and this represents a drop in class for him. The only thing I find surprising here is that Dubai Prince is available at 2/1 BOG.
And that’s probably due to the presence of former course and distance winner Collodi who showed signs of a return to form at Stratford last time out. He stayed on well from the back of the pack to work his way through the 10-runner field to finish second, just two lengths off the winner Kapstadt who was completing back to back wins after having own over today’s track and trip.
Collodi was conceding 17lbs to the winner that day, but now finds himself towards the bottom of the weights in this one. Although lacking the same Flat pedigree as the main selection, he was useful enough and had decent runs over a mile or so, suggesting if push comes to shove, he might be able to quicken late on, if the pace hasn’t been too fast early on. If kept a little closer to the action today, he could well upset the odds at 3/1 BOG here.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Gang Warfare / Dubai Prince @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : Paddy Power, Coral)
Gang Warfare / Collodi @ 14/1 (11/4 & 3/1 : Paddy Power)
Duke of Yorkshire / Dubai Prince @ 11/1 (3/1 & 2/1 : Bet365, BetVictor, Hills, Betfair)
Duke of Yorkshire / Collodi @ 15/1 (3/1 & 3/1 : Bet365, Hills, Betfair)