Stat of the Day, 24th June 2015
I have to leave the house for a family commitment at 6pm on Tuesday evening, so I’m getting Wednesday’s pick out, before I know Tuesday’s result, but I’ll add that in later.
Wednesday’s pick goes in the…
A Class 3 handicap hurdle over 2m 7f on good ground where Tom Scudamore will ride the in-form 7yr old mare, Weather Babe, for David Pipe.
The Pipe / Scudamore / Worcester has generated 11 winners from 31 runners (35.5% SR) for 21.1pts (+67.9% ROI) profit from those horses priced at 11/8 to 5/1, which is where we’re most likely to be here.
From this, the handicappers are 6/12 (50% SR) for 12.9pts (+107.4% ROI), the hurdlers are 5/15 (33.33% SR) for 3.8pts (+25.5% ROI) and Class 3 runners are 2 from 4 for 3.6pts (+90.6% ROI).
Put together, the handicap hurdlers are 5/10 (50% SR) for 8.82 pts (+88.2% ROI) profit.
Weather Babe loos to be well suited by conditions here too. She’s 5/13 over hurdles, of which she has a win and a third place here at Worcester and she’s 3/9 on Good ground. The going might well change, as I’m typing this more than 22 hours before the race, so it’s worth noting that she’s 1 from 1 on good to soft if it rains and if the sun comes out , she has a win and a third from two good to firm runs.
She has won over 2m 7.5f in the past and stamina shouldn’t be an issue for a horse that stays 3m3f (2nd at that trip LTO, 4 weeks ago). She’s also 2 from under Tom Scudamore, 2 from 2 as race favourite and 4 from 6 when priced at 4/1 or shorter. She has finished 21312 in cheekpieces and finished third on her only prior effort over course and distance.
Weather Babe is in really good nick, having run second last time out after winning over this trip two starts ago despite coming off a break of 257 days. The drop back to this trip gives Weather Babe every opportunity of a third win in six outings at 11/4 BOG with Bet365.
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS