Double Dutch, 24th June 2015
A couple of nice winners on Tuesday made for a profitable afternoon/evening which quickly banished any disappointment from Monday’s runners.
Gang Warfare took the opener, staying on well inside the final furlong to open up a 2.25 length on his nearest pursuer, with our other runner, Duke of Yorkshire a further place and a length back.
All of which meant we’d two bullets at the double at Newton Abbot, where our two runners flip flopped in the market with Collodi being sent off as 2/1 fav (in from 3/1), but he failed to justify the support, coming home last of the 7 runners, the best part of 20 lengths behind the winner and our first pick, Dubai Prince.
The Prince quickened from 2 out and was quite comfortable in a 9 length victory seeming to still have plenty in hand to secure our double which was made even sweeter by the winner’s drift out to 5/2 at the off.
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
Gang Warfare : WON at 7/4 (adv 11/4)
Duke of Yorkshire : 3rd at 5/2 (adv 3/1)
Dubai Prince : WON at 5/2 (adv 2/1)
Collodi: 7th at 2/1 (adv 3/1)
Results to date:
606 winning selections from 2131 = 28.44%
191 winning bets in 552 days = 34.60%
P/L : +115.14pts (+10.43% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I’m going with these for Wednesday…
Angelito might well be on a long (23!) lsing run, but he runs consistently well, boasting a place strike rate in excess of 50%, suggesting straight away that he’s going to be involved once again. He was only beaten by a neck last time out in a 4-way scramble over the line and that was in a weaker contest at Goodwood.
Because he always seems to run well, he never gets any respite from the handicapper, despite not winning. He runs off 77 today, as he did last time out and each of those losing efforts in this long run have come off marks of 76 to 80, suggesting he just needs a little help at the weights. he gets that today in the shape of the talented Tom Marquand and his valuable 5lb claim, which I feel will make all the difference for Angelito to finally win again at 11/4 BOG.
The real form horse of the race has to be the 100/30 BOG Whitecrest, who was only headed right on the line at Lingfield four days ago, denying her a quick-fire 14-day hat-trick. She is, of course, massively exposed after 77 races, but has her ideal conditions here today with regards to trip and going. There’s nothing new to expect here today, but she’ll giver her running as usual and would be the most likely beneficiary if Angelito once again misses out.
Fast Dancer looked like acquiring the dreaded “bridesmaid” tag as he closed last season out with three consecutive runner-up finishes and never beaten by far. He then made his seasonal bow at Wolverhampton two months ago and was the runner-up yet again, but probably needing a run after a 226 day break. Closer analysis of his four runner-up finishes show steady improvement and diminishing margins of defeat, suggesting he wasn’t too far away from a debut win.
A drop back to 5f on a fast track at Windsor a month ago was the key for him and he was a comfortable 4.5 lengths winner there a month ago and now with another fast track under his hooves, he’s expected to continue his progression here and a quick look at the racecard says to me that Fast Dancer may well have been underestimated off a mark of 79 and that he could be very good value at 3/1 BOG.
The biggest threat is likely to be former C&D winner Pillar Box, who was only run down in the closing stages at Goodwood 12 days ago, when he had led for much of the 6f race, before going down by just over three lengths. He was entitled to have needed a run, having been off the track for for almost eight months and with the drop back in trip making it easier for him to see this one out, he’s got to be worth considering at 5/2 BOG.
(PS My 10 yr old daughter says these are the best two in the race, as they’re the ones wearing pink!)
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Angelito / Pillar Box @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : SkyBet)
Angelito / Fast Dancer @ 14/1 (11/4 & 3/1 : Bet365 & BetVictor)
Whitecrest / Pillar Box @ 14.17/1 (10/3& 5/2 : SkyBet)
Whitecrest / Fast Dancer @ 16.33/1 (10/3 & 3/1 : SkyBet)