Stat of the Day, 25th June 2015
Weather Babe ran well enough, but not good enough at Worcester on Wednesday evening, if you catch my drift. She seemed to be staying on and in contention approaching the second last, but as the battle began to unfold, she was quite one paced and the leading trio left her behind.
Tom Scudamore tried his best to keep her invlved, but we had to settle for fourth place at 4/1, quite a bit longer than my very early advised 11/4 BOG.
The North East is our next port of call for Thursday’s…
Trainer Julie Camacho doesn’t send too many horses to Newcastle, in fact just 110 runners here in the last twelve and a half years! However, since the start of 2008, she has enjoyed some success with her handicappers with 6 winners from 26 (23.1% SR) for 14.6pts (+56.1% ROI) profit from the ones priced at 9/4 to 10/1.
Of those 26 runners, there is a 5/15 (33.33% SR) record at trips of 7/8 furlongs that has produced profits of 21.7pts (+144.8% ROI).
Today’s jockey Ian Brennan rides well enough here too, if not exactly blazing a trail to the winning line, but his 9/68 (123.2% SR) record isn’t too bad, but does improve to 8/51 (15.7% SR) in handicap contests.
Julie’s only runner here (or anywhere for that matter!) today is Wilde Inspiration, who is our pick at 7/2 BOG with Bet365.
Wilde Inspiration was very consistent last season, finishing 21213 in his first five runs of the 2014 campaign and has returned in 2015 running even better. He was beaten into second place by less than 3 lengths at Leicester on his reappearance from a 196 day break.
He then moved on to Haydock, where he landed a £29,000 handicap at today’s Class and trip, before finding Chester a little too tight for him in a similar contest next/last time out. He was only beaten by 1.25 lengths into third place and the runner-up from that contest, Jallota has since won the JCB stakes at York.
And since the start of 2012, 3 to 5 yr olds running on the Flat over trips of 5f to a mile who were winners two starts and 16 to 60 days ago, but were beaten into 2nd. 3rd or 4th by less than five lengths last time out, have returned to the winners’ enclosure on 171 or 892 (19.2% SR) occasions. These runners have generated a very healthy profit of 242.9pts (+27.2% ROI) to date.
Wilde Inspiration gets to run off the same mark as that narrow defeat at Chester and of those 892 horses above, those running on the same mark as LTO are 73/368 (19.8% SR) for 136.4pts (+37.1% ROI) with those priced in the 9/4 to 12/1 range boasting a record reading 57/274 (20.8% SR) for 130.4pts (+47.6% ROI).
A return to a galloping track, running off the same mark as last time has to make Wilde Inspiration a real contender here in a race that doesn’t seem to have too many in-form rivals and I think he’s certainly the one to beat here at 7/2 BOG with Bet365.
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