Double Dutch, 25th June 2015
On average, we hit just over 1 double in 3 and on the losing days, I’m usually pretty close. However, from time to time, I have days where I just completely get it wrong. Thankfully those “wipeout” days are few and far between, but yesterday was one of them!
At Salisbury, we had 3rd and 4th in a 7-runner race, beaten by 1L & 2.25L respectively (I know that losing by a length isn’t actually a bad pick, but context deems it so), whilst later at Bath our runners were 4th and 5th of 6 runners, 4.5L & 6l off the pace, which is considerable in a 5f sprint!
Post-mortems don’t solve anything, so let’s crack on!
Wednesday’s results were as follows:
Whitecrest : 3rd at 9/2 (adv 10/3)
Angelito : 4th at 6/4 (adv 11/4)
Pillar Box : 4th at 2/1 (adv 5/2)
Fast Dancer : 5th at 3/1 (adv 3/1)
Results to date:
606 winning selections from 2135 = 28.38%
191 winning bets in 552 days = 34.60%
P/L : +113.14pts (+10.23% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I’m looking for redemption from the folowing on Thursday…
Aprovado has been revitalised since being fitted with cheekpieces, winning two from two and looks one to keep an eye on, despite a penalty and a step up in class. The addition of the cheekpieces has also coincided with a change of race tactics with him taking the race from the off, making all and staying on well to win each time.
The latest of those efforts was a 4 lengths success at Pontefract four days ago. With no obvious rival for the lead here, he could well take an easy lead that would be difficult to peg back. And if that happens, then Aprovado would be good value at 2/1 BOG.
That said, he’ll have to deal with the 3/1 BOG Patrick, who is still unexposed on turf after just two starts, finishing third at Windsor, before winning here over course and distance five weeks ago taking his record over this trip to 1331.
He is, of course, also up in weight today, but looked like he had plenty in reserve last time out. He was quite green here and idled when out in front in the final furlong, but still won by over two lengths. He’ll come on for the experience and with Aprovado to chase home, Patrick could still improve further.
Mysterial is the only one here coming into the race with any recent winning form and a 9lb rise in the weights might not be enough to anchor him, especially after the way he bolted up at Nottingham last out. He made all of the 1m2f contest, finding himself well clear with over 3f to run and with no competition for the lead, wasn’t made to work hard, but still won by five lengths.
He really could have won by any distance had he needed/wanted to and although he now runs off a mark of 58, that’s still pretty lenient for a horse that has won off 79 and 80 in the past. I’d expect Mysterial to attempt to make all again today and like Aprovado above, he could well win this race before the others realise whast’s happening. If he gets out and dominates, he’s well wotrh a bet at 11/4 BOG.
The one likeliest to cause him an issue would have to be Glasgon, lurking at the bottom of the handicap, carrying no weight at all (receiving 13lbs) and representing the successful Gibbons/Barron partnership. He was third here over 7f on his last run for Declan Carroll, beforte a 4th place over 8.5f last time out at Hanmilton on his debut for David Barron.
He showed promise on both of those runs, is still unexposed after 8 runs (6 on grass), but loks to have been crying out for a stiffer task. The extra distance should suit him today and we can expect Mr Barron to get a bit more from him too, making Glasgon a player here at 7/2 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Aprovado / Mysterial @ 10.25/1 (2/1 & 11/4 : generally)
Aprovado / Glasgon @ 12.50/1 (2/1 & 7/2 : generally)
Patrick / Mysterial @ 14/1 (3/1 & 11/4: Bet365)
Patrick / Glasgon @ 17/1 (3/1 & 7/2: Bet365 & Ladbrokes)