Double Dutch, 26th June 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 26th June 2015

After the poor show on Wednesday, Thursday provided a welcome tonic, as both first choice picks prevailed after staying on well to win by fairly narrow margins.

Aprovado raced prominently as expected and then hit the front with a furlong to run and was strong enough to repel a couple of fast finishers to score by 0.75 lengths with Patrick back in 4th place, but only a length and a half off the pace.

Then, an hour later, Mysterial made all as expected, but had to dig deep late on to tough it out for a half length victory with our other runner Glasgon not seeming to see the trip out, weakening to a 5 length defeat back in 6th place.

The margins were, as always, pretty tight, but a double was landed and with Aprovado drifting a whole point out to 3/1 at the off, it meant we got paid out at a nice 14/1, courtesy of the BOG!

Thursday’s results were as follows:

Aprovado : WON at 3/1 (adv 2/1)
Patrick : 4th at 2/1 (adv 3/1)
Mysterial : WON at 11/4 (adv 11/4)
Glasgon : 6th at 3/1 (adv 7/2)

Results to date:
608 winning selections from 2139 = 28.42%
192 winning bets in 553 days = 34.72%

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Stakes: 1107.50pts
Returns: 1226.14pts

P/L : +118.64pts (+10.71% ROI)


A tricky day ahead, but here are Friday’s selected races…

5.40 Wolverhampton:

Sirens Cove has been in fine form on the A/W of late, finishing 12231 since stepping up markedly in trip from her previous runs over 7f. She was very comfortable in winning by the best part of three lengths at Lingfield over a longer trip last time, having been eased down from a fair way out and although she’s up 6lbs for that effort, that alone probably wouldn’t stop her.

Add in the fact that she’s now got a 7lb claimer on board, effectively giving a one pound advantage, then I’d expect another bold run. She drops back in trip today, but has won over 10f at Lingfield back in March and with her yard in good nick with a decent record on this track, Sirens Cove is the one to beat at 11/4 BOG.

The one most likely to make her work is probably David Lanigan’s unexposed colt Sweet Dancer. The yard has been going well of late and possesses a good record here at Wolverhampton, as does jockey Ted Durcan. The horse steps up in trip for a handicap debut today and how many times have wee seen that tactic pay off in the past?

He has stamina for a longer trip from his dam’s side of the breeding and in a race where there doesn’t seem to be much quality and/or recent form, Sweet Dancer could well be the alternative at 11/4 BOG.


9.00 Newmarket:

In a race lacking recent winners, Newtons Law‘s pair of runner-up finishes set the standard in this Class 4 sprint. He was only beaten by 2.5 lengths over 5f by Ashpan Sam on Derby Day, two grades higher than this after an 8 months lay off, before dropping down to today’s class and trip to get beaten by a neck five days later.

He was beaten by Lexington Place, who subsequently stepped up in class to win again last Saturday at Ayr and if Newtons Law can run to the same level again here, especially after a fortnight’s R&R, then I’d fancy him to go one better at 2/1 BOG with the booking of Ryan Moore an added bonus.

Fairway to Heaven was also a runner-up last time out, edged fairly unluckily out by a short head in a blanket finish at Goodwood almost three weeks ago, where the first four home were separated by just three short heads! The winner from that day, Lady Gibraltar has since won again at Haydock last Saturday, despite running off a mark 8lb higher than the Goodwood encounter.

Jim Crowley got stuck in a bit of traffic in that Goodwood race and the fact that the gap didn’t come soon enough was the most likely reason for that narrow defeat. I’m glad to see Jim in the saddle again, because I’d not expect an experienced head like him to make the same mistake twice on one horse.

I’m also slightly swayed by the fact that Fairway to Heaven was entered, but pulled from a similar contest here yesterday, suggesting that his team see this as a more winnable option and if they’re right, then 3/1 BOG might prove decent come sunset.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Sirens Cove / Newtons Law @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : Hills & Paddy Power)
Sirens Cove / Fairway to Heaven @ 14/1 (11/4 & 3/1 : Hills)
Sweet Dancer / Newtons Law @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : Paddy Power)
Sweet Dancer / Fairway to Heaven @ 12.68/1 (13/5 & 14/5 : Betbright)

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