Sat TV Trends: 27th June 2015

The Northumberland Plate is the big race at Newcastle, while the C4 cameras are also at Newmarket, plus, don’t forget, it’s Irish Derby Day over at the Curragh – We’ve got all the TV races covered….

Find those TV winners!

Newmarket (C4 and RUK)

2.15 – Marshall Maserati Supporting The AHT Fred Archer Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f CH4

13/13 – Won over at least 1m2f before
12/13 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
11/13 – Had between 0 and 2 previous runs that season
11/13 – Didn’t win last time out
10/13 – Favourites placed
8/13 – Aged 4 years-old
8/13 – Won a Listed (or better) class race before
8/13 – Won over 1m4f before
7/13 – Priced 10/3 or shorter in the betting
5/13 – Favourites (2 joint)
2/13 – Won by the Kremlin House stable
2/13 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/13 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/13 – Ridden by Richard Hughes
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2

2.50 – Betfair Supporting The Animal Health Trust Empress Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies) Cl1 6f CH4

13/13 – Never raced at the track previously
12/13 – Won over either 5 or 6f previously
11/13 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
8/13 – Didn’t win last time out
8/13 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs
7/13 – Came from stall 4 or lower
5/13 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time (2 Albany, 3 Queen Mary)
4/13 – Favourites
4/13 – Ridden by Richard Hughes
3/13 – Trained by the Hannon yard
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

3.25 – John Sunley Memorial Criterion Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f CH4

12/13 – Won over 7f previously
12/13 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
11/13 – Had at least 1 run already that season
10/13 – Aged 5 or younger
9/13 – Priced 6/1 or bigger in the betting
8/13 – Unplaced last time out
7/13 – From stall 3 or lower
7/13 – Favourites Unplaced
4/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/13 – Favourites
3/13 – Trained by Richard Hannon (3 of last 4 runnings)
3/13 – Ridden by Richard Hughes
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1

Newcastle (ATR/C4)

2.00 – Betfred Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f CH4

13/13 – Won over 6f previously
12/13 – Unplaced in their last race
12/13 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
10/13 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
10/13 – Yet to win a Group race
10/13 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/13 – Won at least 4 times before
8/13 – Aged 5 or older
8/13 – Favourites placed
8/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/13 – Raced at Ascot last time out
5/13 – Raced at Newcastle previously
5/13 – Favourites (1 joint)
2/13 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/13 – Trained by Richard Fahey
1/13 – Won their last race
Danzeno won the race 12 months ago
8 of the last 11 winners came between stalls 1-5
Just won winner from stall 1 in the last 11 runnings (and only 2 horses placed)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

2.35 – Betfred Half Time In-Play Boosts Handicap Cl2 6f CH4

13/13 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
12/13 – Aged 6 or younger
10/13 – Had won over 6f previously
10/13 – Rated 90 or less
9/13 – Won between 1-4 times previously
9/13 – Unplaced last time out
9/13 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/13 – Raced within the last 2 weeks
7/13 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
7/13 – Aged 4 years-old
7/13 – Carried 9-0 or more in weight
7/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/13 – Raced Newcastle previously
3/13 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
2/13 – Raced at Ascot last time out
2/13-  Raced at York last time out
2/13 – Favourites
2/13 – Trained by Tim Easterby
1/13 – Won their last race
10 of the last 11 winners came from stall 7 or HIGHER
6 of the last 11 winners came between stalls 10-15
The average winning SP in the last 11 years is 9.5/1

3.10 – Betfred Membership “Play Your Way” Handicap Cl2 7f CH4

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13/13 – Won over 7f or a mile previously
12/13 – Aged 6 or younger
11/13 – Won over 7f previously
10/13 – Rated between 80-90
10/13 – Ran within the last 2 weeks
10/13 – Won between 2-5 times previously
9/13 – Raced at Newcastle previously (2 won)
9/13 – Aged 5 or younger
8/13 – Favourites placed
8/13 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
8/13 – Unplaced last time out
7/13 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
5/13 – Favourites
5/13 – Price 11/4 or shorter in the betting
4/13 – Won their last race
4/13 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/13 – Trained by Brian Ellison
2/13 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
Five of the last 11 horses from stall 11 have been placed
9 of the last 10 winners came from either stalls 1-5 or 10-12
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 6/1

3.45 – John Smith´s Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m19y CH4

Past Northumberland Plate Winners

2014 – Angel Gabrial (4/1 fav)
2013 – Tominator (8/1)
2012 – Ile de Re (5/2 fav)
2011 – Tominator (25/1)
2010 – Overturn (14/1)
2009 – Som Tala (16/1)
2008 – Arc Bleu (14/1)
2007 – Juniper Girl (5/1 fav)
2006 – Toldo (33/1)
2005 – Sergeant Cecil (14/1)
2004 – Mirjan (33/1)
2003 – Unleash (10/1)
2002 – Bangalore (8/1)

Key Northumberland Plate Trends

12/13  – Won over at least 1m4f previously on the flat
12/13 – Placed fifth or better last time out
11/13 – Winners from stall 14 or lower
11/13 – Aged 6 or younger
10/13 – Carried 8-12 or less in weight
10/13 – Won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
10/13 – Placed in the top three in their previous race
8/13 – Priced a double-figure price in the betting
7/13 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
6/13 – Won by a National Hunt yard
3/13 – Raced at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 7 years)
3/13 – Won on the flat at Newcastle previously
3/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – Favourites
2/13 – Trained by Donald McCain
1/13 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 13 years is 14/1

Other Northumberland Plate Facts

No horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985
Five of the last nine winners ran at either Ascot or Haydock last time out
Eight winning favourites (1 joint) since 1985
Trainer Paul Cole had the winner in 1997, 1998 & 2001

Curragh (ATR)

6.30 – Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Filies) 1m4f

Recent Irish Derby Winners

2014 – AUSTRALIA (1/8 fav)
2013 – TRADING LEATHER (6/1)
2012 – CAMELOT  (1/5 fav)
2011 – TREASURE BEACH (7/2)
2010 – CAPE BLANCO (7/2)
2009 – FAME AND GLORY (8/11 fav)
2008 – FROZEN FIRE (16/1)
2007 – SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (5/1)
2006 – DYLAN THOMAS (9/2 fav)
2005 – HURRICANE RUN (4/5 fav)
2004 – GREY SWALLOW (10/1)
2003 – ALAMSHAR  (4/1)

Key Irish Derby Betting Trends and Stats

12/12 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
11/12 – Won 3 or more times
11/12 – Won by an Irish-based yard
11/12 – Won a Group race previously
10/12 – Favourites that were placed in the top 4
10/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/12 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
10/12 – Priced 6/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/12 – Didn’t win last time out
8/12 – Never raced at the Curragh previously
8/12 – Raced in the Epsom Derby last time out
8/12 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won it 11 times in all)
5/12 – Placed in the Epsom Derby (2 winners, Australia & Camelot)
3/12 – Previous Group 1 winners
2/12 – Ridden by Kieren Fallon
2/12 – Ridden by Seamie Heffernan
The average winning SP in the last 12 renewals is 9/2

 

 

 

Trainers Quotes

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“Akavit: Ran a nice race last time, despite losing his winning sequence. Still think he’s capable off this mark – but is there something lurking with a better handicap mark?”
Ed de Giles

22/06/15 1st 10/1

“Layline: Dropped in grade so every chance of going well. Trip, mark and AW all fine, just hoping for a bit of a change of luck as not a lot going right at the moment!”
Gay Kelleway

22/06/15 1st 8/1

“El Fenix: Hopefully the drop in trip might bring out some improvement in him which will give him a reasonable chance.”
Gary Moore

19/06/15 1st 4/1

“Goolagong Girl: Won well last time – up in the ratings, but the horse is in great shape and we come here hopeful of another win.”
Jane Chapple-Hyam

19/06/15 1st 8/1

“Injun Sands: Has done really well since the win at Lingfield and the form is very good. Just concerned about a fast track – it seems by the times the surface has firmed up.”
Jane Chapple-Hyam

18/06/15 1st 7/2

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