Stat of the Day, 29th June 2015
No pre-race shenanigans from Huntsmans Close on Saturday and he ran out a worthy if not emphatic winner at an SP of 5/2. The official margin was a neck, but he’d already put the race to bed before the runner-up flashed home and never really standing a chance of catching our winner.
The win rounded off another good week for SotD and the bonus came from the 4/1 early price paying us out at 160% of SP.
Monday is a new week and we start again from scratch with the…
A Class 4, 1m4f handicap for six, 3 yr old runners on the Tapeta, where I’ve just taken 7/2 BOG about William Buick’s mount, Rosenbaum…
…who is trained by Charlie Appleby, a man in great form and who has a good record in A/W handicaps in general and also fares very well here at Dunstall Park.
In the last 14 days, Charlie’s runners are 9/42 and are 5/20 in the last week alone, so the mood in camp should be good. In A/W handicaps since the start of 2014, the yard is 56/150 (37.3% SR) for 43.1pts (+28.7% ROI), which is an excellent strike rate and profit, but don’t forget, that’s from blind unfiltered betting and the profit level can easily be improved by some logical filters, such as…
- those priced at 13/8 to 8/1 : 38/106 (35.9% SR) for 37.7pts (+48.8% ROI)
- running at trips beyond 9f : 28/60 (46.7% SR) for 27.1pts (+45.2% ROI)
- here at Wolverhampton : 21/48 (43.8% SR) for 15.2pts (+31.6% ROI)
Our jockey, William Buick, is also riding well at the moment with a 14-day record of 7 wins from 39 and he’s 4/16 in the last week, whilst since the start of 2014, he has a 23.4% strike rate on the Appleby horses via a 51 from 218 record.
William doesn’t ride here too often, if truth be told, with just 26 outings in the last 30 months. He has, however, won 13 (50% SR) of those races, generating 15.5pts profit at an ROI of 59.6% and he’s 2/5 for Charlie Appleby here.
Rosenbaum has an A/W record reading 411 with wins here over course and distance in mid-March on his only previous visit here, which he followed up with another win over today’s trip at Southwell in early April.
The fact he gets the trip is no surprise really as he’s by Dubawi, whose offspring are 174/850 (20.5% SR) for 273.3pts (+32.2% ROI) at trips of 10 to 14 furlongs, whilst his 1m4f A/W runners are 25/89 (28.1% SR) for 42.9pts (+48.2% ROI).
He is, admittedly, 12lbs higher than his last win, but he’s still unexposed over this trip and over this surface, so there could still be room for improvement and if that proves to be the case, I’ll be glad that I took the 7/2 BOG from Coral about Rosenbaum here. BetVictor are also offering 7/2 BOG, whilst Ladbrokes are matching the price, but don’t go BOG until 9.00am.
Once the full market has formed, the easiest way of comparing prices is by…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS