Stat of the Day, 30th June 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 30th June 2015

Rosenbaum was backed all day as though he just couldn’t lose and come race-time our 7/2 BOG bet was looking very good value indeed as he was sent off at even money!

He was the beneficiary of yet another patient and well-timed ride, this time from William Buick, who took the initiative just inside the final furlong and ran on/pulled away to open up a 4 length gap by the time he hit the line to add another 3.5pts of SP-smashing profit to the kitty.

Last one now of what has been a tremendous month, the…

7.30 Stratford:

Which is a Class 4, handicap hurdle for 4yr olds and older. The trip is 2m 0.5f on good ground and Richard Johnson will carry the weight of Geegeez readers’ expectations on board Charlie Longsdon’s 4yr old gelding, Zarawi, who currently trades at 100/30 BOG in places.

Both Charlie and Richard are in decent form…

Charlie Longsdon has saddled up 2 winners from 6 in the last two weeks, whilst over the past 8 weeks, his hurdlers are 12/30 (40% SR) for 21.3pts (+71% ROI) profit. of which the handicappers are 8/19 (42.1% SR) for 23.5pts (+123.6% ROI).

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Richard Johnson, for his part, has ridden 19 winners from 83 (22.9% SR) in the last month with his hurdlers priced at 5/1 and shorter winning 11 of 22 (50% SR) for 14.3pts (+65% ROI)

They also work well together…

Since the start of 2011. the partnership has 25 winners from 87 (28.7% SR) for 32.4pts (+37.3% ROI), from which their hurdlers have won 17 of 49 (34.7% SR) for 8.4pts (+17.2% ROI) with those priced at 5/1 and shorter having a record of 17/32 (53.1% SR) for 25.4pts (+79.5% ROI).

Charlie’s horses tend to go well here…

With 21 winners from 101 runners, the resultant 20.8% stable strike rate has generated level stakes profits of 38.4pts at an ROI of 37.6% with the hurdlers contributing 11 wins from 49 (22.5% SR) for 25.1pts (+51.2% ROI).

And since 2009, his handicap hurdlers are 8/26 (30.8% SR) for 23.2pts (+89.4% ROI) here.

Zarawi was a winner last time out, 3 weeks ago at Fontwell…

And Charlie Longsdon’s handicap hurdlers who were winners last time out and then raced again at odds of 5/1 and shorter within a month of that win, went on to “double up” on 11 of 24 (45.8% SR) occasions producing profits of 8.24pts (+34.3% ROI), whilst since the start of 2013, those figures improve to 7 wins from 14 (50% SR) for 7.17pts (+51.2% ROI).

It was a novice hurdle that he won LTO…

And male handicap hurdlers who were winners of a Novice hurdle last time out, 16 to 25 days ago are 84/391 (21.5% SR) for 157.3pts (+40.2% ROI) since 2008 and those sent off at 11/8 to 9/1 are 76/288 (26.4% SR) for 156.5pts (+54.3% ROI)

And there’s probably enough data there to back up the selection. But hang on, let’s throw another micro system at it for good measure, shall we? 😀

OK, it was actually a handicap novice hurdle that he won by 9 lengths LTO…

And since the start of 2012, male handicap hurdlers who were winners of a handicap hurdle by more than 4 lengths LTO and race again within 2 months of that win, went on to win again on 237 of 934 (25.4% SR) reappearances, generating 179.3pts profit at an ROI of 19.2% with those priced at Evens to 11/1 winning 201 of 775 (25.9% SR) for 197.9pts (+25.5% ROI), from which those running here at Stratford are 7/17 (41.2% SR) for 27.3pts (+160.7% ROI).

Zarawi, for his part…

…has adapted to handicap hurdling really well, finishing 4171 in four outings to date and in those four runs, he has won over 2m and also over 2m 1.5f, so the trip should be fine here, he’s 171 on good ground and also 171 when priced below 4/1. He’s 1/1 under Richard Johnson and 1/1 at this Class 4 level and 2 from 2 in fields of 7 or fewer runners, whilst he has finished 411 when racing within 16 to 30 of his last run.

All in all, conditions look ideal for Zarawi here and I’m more than happy to place June’s last bet on him at 100/30 BOG with Bet365. Or if you’d prefer to use BetVictor, then they’re also offering the same price, whilst the rest of the market can be seen by…

…clicking here for the betting on the 7.30 Stratford

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard.

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