Double Dutch, 30th June 2015
No double landed yesterday despite a 1-2 finish in our opener where the 10/3 to 9/2 drifter Another Royal just got up on the line to snatch victory from my first pick and 15/8 favorite Sleeping Apache. I also know that many of you like to do the forecasts etc and you were rewarded at the tune of 13.3/1.
This, of course, meant we’d a good stake going onto race 2, but the best we got was a 4th place finish from New Colours at 2/1, as he was headed with a furlong to run and ultimately beaten by 4 lengths.
But the day wasn’t a wipeout for us, as Card High’s withdrawl from that second race meant we still had a winning day, getting paid out on a 9/2 single from the Another Royal/Card High double. A 0.75pts profit on the day might not sound much at face vaule, but it does represent a 37.5% ROI and if replicated daily, I’d gladly settle for 4.5pts every 6 days!
Monday’s results were as follows:
Another Royal : WON at 9/2 (adv 10/3)
Sleeping Apache : 2nd at 15/8 (adv 2/1)
The Exacta paid £14.30 here.
New Colours : 4th at 2/1 (adv 5/2)
Card High : non-runner (adv 11/4)
Results to date:
611 winning selections from 2150 = 28.42%
193 winning bets in 557 days = 34.65%
P/L : +115.39pts (+10.36% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
June’s last races for DD are…
I’ve liked the way Kerrymerry has progressed this season having stepped up markedly in trip from four nondescript runs over 7f as a 2yr old. He retuirned to the fray after a 6-month break to run third at Beverley over 1m4f in May, twice as far as he’d gone in the past and then landed back to back handicaps at Lingfield at the start of this month, a 10f win on the A/W followed by an 11.5f success on turf there three days later, winning both fairly comfortably by two lengths each.
He was, however, folied in his hat-trick bid last time out as he was caught very late on over 1m4f at Newbury when tiring towards the finish. He had, nevertheless, run a big race, but went down as a runner-up, beaten by just half a length.
It’s highly possible that a third run on 10 days was a step too far, so he’s had the best part of three weeks to recover and he’ll now try again in the knowledge that he beat Who Dares Wins by half alength in that last race and the latter was a 4 length winer at Wolverhampton yesterday. Despite needing a bit more today off 69, Kerrymerry still gets weight from all his rivals, thanks to his 14lb weight for age allowance and looks dangerous at 9/2 BOG.
If however, he finds one just too good again, it’s highly likely that it’ll be the 6/4 BOG favourite More Mischief, who is still unexposed after just three starts (unraced as a 2 yr old). She has finished 712 so far this season and won an 8.5f maiden on soft ground here at this track almost two months ago.
She was then second over 10.5 furlongs at Haydock on her handicap debut being far from disgraced in getting beat by just a length behind Mark Johnston’s progressive Mythical City, who has since won both her subsequent outings, including a step up in class at Chester last Friday. If More Mischief continues to improve and runs like she did last time out, we could have a cracking finish on our hands.
Noble Friend has been in fine form of late, winning three of his last four outings and only beaten by a length and a half in the defeat. He has always seemed to be just doing enough to win whilst looking like the trip were just a little on the sharp side for him. That said, he was coasting home staying on well to win by 6 lengths last time out and I believe he’ll do even better stepping up in trip today and I’d expect him to land this at 11/4 BOG.
The biggest danger is probably going to come from the consistent 13 yr old veteran Porters War. His last seen runs may well have been spread over a 19 month period, but there’s a serious level of consistency about him. His finishes in that run read as 1221352. Ground conditions are in his favour, he prefers to go left handed and has won a couple of races over 2m4f in the past.
He was only beaten by half a length here last time out, with the next horse a further 17 lengths back and the winner from that race, Sporting Boy, has since steppeds up in class and won again. At 13, there’s no guarantee of a repeat performance, but recent consistent history suggests another decent run and if things do qwuite go right for Noble Friend, I’d want to be on Porters War at 5/1 BOG with Bet365.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
More Mischief / Noble Friend @ 8.38/1 (6/4 & 11/4 : generally)
More Mischief/ Porters War @ 14/1 (6/4 & 5/1 : Bet365)
Kerrymerry / Noble Friend @ 17.75/1 (4/1 & 11/4 : generally)
Kerrymerry / Porters War @ 29/1 (4/1 & 5/1 : Bet365)