Stat of the Day, 1st July 2015
No winning end to a fantastic month, I’m afraid, as Zarawi never really seemed settled/comfortable on the quickening ground. In a race decimated by non-runners, our early 100/30 advice was reduced by Rule 4 deductions to a paltry 13/6, marginally higher than the SP of 2/1.
It just wasn’t his/our night and he was the last of the four home, beaten by 8 lengths.
We now wipe the slate clean and start July from scratch, which makes it all the more frustrating that it looks a tough day for meaningful stats to use on horses that aren’t odds on! I have, however, found one that might come as a bit of a surprise on bare form, but he goes in the…
Where the 9 yr old gelding Romany Ryme seeks a first ever hurdles win at the 13th attempt, bringing an overall career record of 1/24 into the race! Don’t worry, I haven’t gone completely mad (yet!), there are some mitigating factors to consider.
Firstly, this is his first hurdles run for over 14 months when he had two efforts in 3rd and 4th place off marks of 115/116. He has been chasing ever since and did win a chase in mid-December. He now returns to hurdling after change of yard and runs off just 107 here, making him potentially well treated today.
His new trainer is Gordon Elliott, whose form in the last month stands at 16 winners from 82 (19.5% SR) for 17.6pts (+21.5% ROI) profit, of which his hurdlers are 9/40 (22.5% SR) for 7.85pts (+19.6% ROI) and his handicap hurdlers are 5/23 (21.7% SR) for 15.6pts (+67.9% ROI).
Romany Ryme will be ridden by Richard Johnson, who despite Zarawi’s poor show last might, did pick up another winner on the Stratford card to take his total for June to 20 winners from 86 rides (23.3% SR) with a 12/25 (48% SR) record on horses priced at 5/1 or shorter, producing 13.5pts (+54% ROI) profit.
Richard also goes well here at Perth, with a record of 16/48 (33.33% SR) for 14.4pts (+30% ROI) over hurdles here since 2008.
Gordon Elliott is certainly a trainer to keep an eye out for in NH Handicaps, boasting a record of 60 winners from 312 runners since the start of 2010. This 19.2% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of 155.7pts (+49.9% ROI) just from blindly backing his runners! With today’s race in mind, those 312 runners can be split as follows…
- Class 3/4 runners : 49/191 (25.7% SR) for 99.8pts (+52.2% ROI)
- Hurdlers : 39/178 (21.9% SR) for 131.8pts (+77.6% ROI)
- at Perth : 41/164 (25% SR) for 52.7pts (+32.1% ROI)
Here at Perth, in Class 3/4 handicap hurdles, Gordon’s runners are 25/86 (29.1% SR) for 25.8pts (+30% ROI) and at odds of 6/5 to 9/1, they are 20/63 (31.75% SR) for 39.5pts (+62.7% ROI).
Now Romany Ryme has already had 24 career outings before Gordon Elliott has become his third trainer, but since 2009, Gordon has taken 233 runners from other yards and got 32 (13.7% SR) fo them to win on debut for the yard. These runners have generated 82.6pts profit at an ROI of 35.4%.
The ones to look out for are male hurdlers, as 19 of 139 (13.7% SR) have been winners, producing profits of 101.4pts (+72.9% ROI) with those priced at 5/4 to 5/1 winning 14 of 26 (53.9% SR) for 29.9pts (+114.9% ROI).
Now, it’s quite clear that Romany Ryme is no potential champion, but if he can run to the same level as his last couple of hurdles runs, he’d be in with a good shout. Add in the fact he’s running off a mark 8 or 9 pounds lower than those runs and the likely possiblity that his new handler has eked a bit more out of him and that a seasoned pro is on board as oppoosed to the 5lb and 7lb claimers that have ridden him on 20 of his 24 starts and then you begin to wonder…
Well, all those factors got me thinking anyway, enough to the point where I’ve backed Romany Ryme at 7/2 with Ladbrokes. This is, of course, non-BOG until 9.00am on raceday, but if you want the added insurance of the BOG, then Bet365 are offering 100/30 BOG, whilst the rest of the market is found by…
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