Stat of the Day, 2nd July 2015
Something very unusual happened yesterday, we got a winner on the first of the month!
We’ve tended not to fare too well on recent monthly openers, but what seemed to some like a “leftfield pick” rewarded us for our faith.
I say leftfield to some, because Romany Ryme’s past form wouldn’t have suggested a win, especially not as a 5/2 favourite, but the stats said he could do it and so he did under a great ride from Richard Johnson and because we got on early, we collected 3.5pts!
So we won Wednesday’s 3.40 race at Perth, now I want the winner of Thursday’s…
A Class 4, Conditional jockeys’, handicap hurdle over 2m4f on good ground, where I’m taking a piece of what looks a fairly generous 9/2 BOG offered about Lisa Harrison’s Solway Dandy.
Lisa doesn’t have the biggest string of horses, but she gets winners and profit from them nontheless and that’s why I like her! In NH handicap races since the start of 2008, she’s had just 318 runners, so around 42 per year, but 34 (10.7% SR) of them are winners, generating level stakes profits of 91.7pts at an ROI of 28.8% and you could do far worse following a big name trainer.
We’re not talking massive sample sizes here, of course, but the 318 runners could be broken down with today’s race in mind as follows…
- Class 4/5 runners are 31/268 (11.6% SR) for 90.9pts (+33.9% ROI)
- Hurdlers are 24/242 (9.9% SR) for 89.6pts (+37% ROI)
- Perth runners are 14/85 (16.5% SR) for 26.6pts (+31.2% ROI)
Lisa’s Class 4/5 handicap hurdlers are, therefore, 22/203 (10.8% SR) for 87.9pts (+43.3% ROI), of which those running in Class 4 events are 13/116 (11.2% SR) for 53.3pts (+45.9% ROI) and of the Class 4 runners, there’s a 7/44 (15.9% SR) for 14.3pts (+32.5% ROI) reuturn here at Perth, whilst today’s jockey Ryan Day is 4/18 (22.2% SR) for 13.5pts (+74.9% ROI).
On Lisa’s Class 4 handicap hurdlers here at Perth, Ryan Day is 4/9 (44.4% SR) for 22.5pts (+249.8% ROI) and at odds of 2/1 to 8/1, he is 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 24.5pts (+349.8% ROI).
In these conditional jockeys’ races, a bad jockey can lose on a good horse, so it’s as well that Ryan is one of the better ones around at present. He has ridden two winners and two runners-up from just six starts in the last fortnight and more long-term, he is 7/29 (24.1% SR) for 17.8pts (+61.5% ROI) profit here at Perth.
All 7 Perth wins have come from the 20 handicaps he has contested with the 35% strike rate genrating 26.8pts profit at an ROI of 134.2%, whilst his record over hurdles here is 4/20 (20% SR) for 21.5pts (+107.5% ROI).
Ryan Day is 4/15 (26.7% SR) for 16.5pts (+109.9% ROI) in handicap hurdles races here at Perth.
Solway Dandy, for his part, is no mug! He comes here in the form of his life having finished 22211 in hios last fiver starts, all of which were handicap hurdles races over this course and distance and when partnered by Ryan Day, he is 42211, with those last four results being his last four runs.
I was pleasantly surprised when I looked at the evening market for this race. Most firms had priced it up and several had Solway Dandy at 9/2 BOG, possibly because the ground isn’t ideal, but he is the form horse and at that price, I’m happy to risk a point with Hills.
At least four other firms are also going 9/2 BOG about Solway Dandy, so take your pick by…
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