Stat of the Day, 3rd July 2015
No joy, but no disgrace either from Thursday’s runner, Solway Dandy who gave it his best shot to finish second at Perth at our advised odds of 9/2.
The race and the day in general belonged to Gordon Elliott, whose seven runners at Perth finished 2211112, plus his runners at Bellewstown won three of their five races!
Sometimes you run into a juggernaut and that’s all that happened to us here. Losing to a 6/4 favourite is never too much of an issue, we just pick up the notebook again and move on to our next race, the…
A Class 6, 1m4f, handicap for 3yr olds and older on good to firm ground, where I’m backing a 3yr old, 10-race maiden in the shape of Mick Appleby’s filly, Old Fashion.
She’s top rated (OR) of the 12 runners here, but her 13lbs weight for age allowance should enable her to be competitive again, as she has started to be of late. Yes, she’s 0/10 so far, but has shown improvement in each of her four runs since a switch to the Appleby yard and at the weights allocated here, it wouldn’t take much of an improvement to land this one at 4/1 BOG (Bet365).
Mick Appleby is one of those “set and forget” trainers, in so much that had you put £20 on every one of his 2176 runners since the start of 2010 not only would you have backed 277 winners (12.7% SR), but you’d have pocketed profits of £8294 or 19.1% of your stakes.
His handicappers are 239/1677 (14.2% SR) for 262.9pts (+15.7% ROI), whilst on the Flat in that same time frame, Mick’s runners are 98/844 (11.6% SR) for 334.2pts (+39.6% ROI).
Putting those together, his Flat handicappers are 87/668 (13% SR) for 301.8pts (+45.2% ROI), of which those priced in the 5/2 to 7/1 area are 48/219 (21.9% SR) for 84.6pts at an ROI of 38.6% with Andrew Mullen riding 21 of those 48 winners from just 93 rides (22.6% SR) producing profits of 40.9pts (+44% ROI).
Not only is Old Fashion‘s cause aided by that 13lb allowance I mentioned earlier, she also drops down in class to run here after two decent placed efforts at a higher grade. This is a tactic often used to get the Appleby horses winning and since the start of 2011, Mick Appleby’s Handicap Class Droppers are 53/369 (14.4% SR) for 55.1pts (+14.9% ROI) profit.
Those running on the Flat are 25/162 (15.4% SR) for 93.3pts (+57.6% ROI), of which those dropping down just the one grade are 21/139 (15.1% SR) for 89.5pts (64.4% ROI).
And of those 139 dropping down 1 grade, the record for those turned back out within 11 to 25 since their last higher class run is 12 winners from 63 (19.1% SR) for 80.1pts (127.1% ROI).
This arguably represents Old Fashion‘s best chance yet of opening her account and I’m happy to get 4/1 BOG about her from Bet365. They’re the clear market leaders at present, but 7/2 BOG is on offer in several places, as you’ll see by…
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