Stat of the Day, 4th July 2015
Back to back runners-up for SotD, as once again we just ran into one too good on the day. Old Fashion ran his race, but quite possibly expended too much energy in a failed bid to get a prominent position from a wide draw.
The eventual winner had a far easier and shorter passage, but in fairness travelled best of all and was the only with anything in reserve for the closing stages and was quite comfortable in the end.
Our 4/1 BOG was reduced to 3/1 via a Rule 4 deduction, but this was still slightly better than the 11/4 SP and beating SP is the key to long-term profits.
My last pick of the week runs in the…
A Class 4, 7f, handicap on good to firm ground, where you can get 4/1 BOG about Keith Dalgleish’s 3yr old gelding Go Dan Go, to be ridden by Philip Makin.
Keith Dalgleish’s overall record here at Carlisle is good, with 28 winners from his 159 runners (17.6% SR) for 45.9pts (+28.9% ROI) profit, of which there’s an 11/55 (20% SR) record at Class 4 that has produced 11.35pts profit at an ROI of 20.6% with horses ridden by Philip Makin winning 6 of 17 (35.3% SR) for 12.4pts (+72.9% ROI).
In handicap contests, the above stats are even better with an overall record of 26/126 (20.6% SR) for 69.4pts (+55.1% ROI) profit. The Class 4 ‘cappers are 11/52 (21.2% SR) for 14.35pts (+27.6% ROI) and Philip Makin’s contribution is 6 wins from 14 (42.9% SR) for 15.4pts (+109.9% ROI).
Mind you, this is a track that Philip rides well for other yards too! He has an overall record of 21/152 (13.8% SR) here that has produced 56.75pts profit at an ROI of 37.3%, whilst in handicaps, he is 15/106 (14.2% SR) for 72.3pts (+68.2% ROI), of whch those priced below 5/1 are 7/20 (35% SR) for 8.8pts (+44% ROI).
As well as both jockey and trainer having decent stats here, Go Dan Go looks well suited to the task ahead, based on the following data…
In handicaps, he has finished 2110331 and he’s 1 from 1 here at Carlisle. He has finished 2133 on good to firm ground and has finished 213 in his last three efforts at today’s trip. Under Philip Making, the record reads 221131 and running after a break of just 8 to 18 days, he is 211031.
Go Dan Go is 3 from at odds below 7/1, he’s 2 from 2 if sent off as favourite and his record on right handed tracks is 211331. He’s well drawn here with some pace alongside him to tow him along and all in all, I’d expect another typical decent performance from him at 4/1 BOG. That’s with Paddy Power, whilst the general price seems to be 7/2 BOG, as seen by…
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