Double Dutch, 4th July 2015
We gave the bookies another 2pts back yesterday, after a couple of poor performances from fancied runners at Newton Abbot.
Six started, five finished and the best we could get was 3rd and 4th, beaten by 14 and 25 lengths respectively as both of them emptied out fairly quickly with quite a way to run of what had hardly been a frenetic pace.
More Bucks could be excused, I suppose, as a chase debutant, but Gone Too Far was very disappointing for an 11/10 fav (not that we backed him at that price, of course!)
All of which rendered the race at Doncastr 25 mins later largely irrelevant, other than for personal pride. As it was, the race was ruined by three of the four horses being withdrawn, including one of our picks Distain. This left us with just Frenzified, whose 9/4 BOG was reduced to 27/20 after 40p deductions.
Frenzified was well backed as a result of Distain’s defection and won by half a length at 10/11. It was good to still beat SP by almost 50%, but nobody’s getting rich quick off 10/11 shots!
Friday’s results were as follows:
More Bucks : 3rd at 11/4 (adv 3/1)
Gone Too Far : 4th at 11/10 (adv 9/4)
Frenzified : WON at 10/11 (adv 9/4)
Distain : non-runner (adv 7/4)
Results to date:
616 winning selections from 2165 = 28.45%
195 winning bets in 561 days = 34.76%
P/L : +121.69pts (+10.89% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Last picks of an up and down week are…
The lightly-raced Use Your Filbert has made the frame in each of his three runs to date, having won a 6f maiden on debut at Haydock last September on his only run as a 2yr old. He then raced over the same track and trip some 260 days later (22nd May) and despite clearly needing the run, managed to finish third of thirteen, staying on strongly at the finish, suggesting a step up to 7f was in order.
He was 1.25 lengths away from the runner-up that day and that horse has won his only run since and the horses in 5th (2.5L back) and 8th (10L back) are both 2 from 2 since that run, suggesting it was a decent race to have finished third in.
Use Your Filbert tackled 7f and faster ground both for the first time at Newmarket a fortnight ago and only went down by a neck, having been collared late on. I’d expect him to come on for the experience and he’s clearly open to further improvement and looks a good bet at 11/4 BOG.
The one most likely to be the ooposition is the class-dropping Properus, the mount of the on-fire Ryan Moore for William Haggas who has a tremendous record over the years on this track. He was a disppointing favourite last time out in a Class 2 handicap at Newmarket, where he didn’t get the run of a race that has now started to generate subsequent winners, includingf the two horses immediately ahead of him that day.
Properus has had a bit of a rest since that run and more is expected stepping back up in trip, but down in class and although I see him as second best to my first pick, he’s a very viable back-up plan at 7/2 BOG.
Intibaah looks to have the ideal conditions here for a return to winning ways. He’s 4/10 over this trip and is a previous course winner, having finished 1st and 2nd over track and trip. He was actually beaten into second by the re-opposing Clear Spring by a couple of lengths here in May, but he was returning from 7 months off the track, got hampered at the start and conceded 12lbs to the winner.
He now carries 13lbs less than his victor from that race and with the going currently good to soft and plenty of rain around the North-West today, the softer it gets the better for him, as he’s 3/6 on soft ground. He has finished 112 in this grade of race and goes best (1212) in these small fields, making Intibaah a viable contender today at 9/4 BOG.
That said, I don’t think there’ll be much between him and the 3/1 BOG Musical Comedy with both of them standing a far better chance after Algar Lad (who I fancied) was withdrawn at 8.20am (whilst I was preparing the write-up!). This 4yr old has won 4 of 13 races to date and whilst a recent run of form reading 00206 since winning a Listed race at Newbury in May 2014, doesn’t look too inspiring, we should note that those five runs came at Group 2, Group 3 (twice) and two Listed.
So, this is a big step down in Class for Musical Comedy and he has very similar profile to Intibaah over track, trip, going, field size etc and with them both carrying very little weight, they should really finish 1-2 today. Technically Intibaah is 5lbs well in at the weights and that means he should just shade it for me.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Use Your Filbert / Intibaah @ 11.19/1 (11/4 & 9/4 : Betfair SB)
Use Your Filbert / Musical Comedy @ 14/1 (11/4 & 3/1 : Betfair SB)
Properus / Intibaah @ 13.63/1 (7/2 & 9/4 : SkyBet)
Properus / Musical Comedy @ 17/1 (7/2 & 3/1 : Bet365, Coral & SkyBet)