Double Dutch, 6th July 2015
Properus was withdrawn from Saturday’s race not too long after I’d gone to press with the DD selections on Saturday. Not only did this reduce our chances of winning, but it also affects the odds.
As it was, our original 11/4 shot Use Your Filbert was well backed and was sent off as a 15/8 favourite, but failed to live up to expectations, finishing 5th of 7, beaten by 7.5 lengths after encountering traffic along the way.
This meant that the double was gone, but the non-runner gave us the compenation of two singles on Intibaah and Musical Comedy later at Haydock and I was exxpecting it to be close between them.
Intibaah eventually came out best of the two by three quarters of a length, but he himself couldn’t hold on to the lead and was headed and beaten into 2nd place by a length inside the final furlong.
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Use Your Filbert : 5th at 15/8 (adv 11/4)
Properus : non-runner (adv 7/2)
Intibaah : 2nd at 10/11 (adv 9/4)
Musical Comedy : 3rd (adv 3/1)
Results to date:
616 winning selections from 2168 = 28.41%
195 winning bets in 562 days = 34.70%
P/L : +119.69pts (+10.69% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Last picks of an up and down week are…
I can’t see there being much to choose between Marie Des Anges and Falcarragh here today and the early markets would tend to agree.
Marie Des Anges is in great nick since returning to action in January after a 9-month layoff. She was only beaten by a neck on heavy ground that day and her 2015 record is 9 races, 2 wins, 2 failure to completes and 5 top-3 finishes, including finishing as runner-up in each of her last two starts.
Trainer (and dear friend of Geegeez!) Anthony Honeyball only has this likeable mare running today and on days where a handicap jumper is his only runner of the day, he enjoys a 24.2% strike rate and he could very well improve upon that with a 2/1 BOG success for Marie Des Anges.
Falcarragh, on the other hand, hasn’t raced as often of late, but was a very solid/creditable third at Aintree 24 days ago, showing no ill effects from an 8 month break from racing, taking his form over fences for the past 12 months to 121253.
Most of his more recent efforts have been in better company than this and with the in-form Richard Johnson in the saddle, should be involved again today. Like the mare above, he’s at the sharper end of the market and Falcarragh can also be backed at around the 2/1 BOG mark.
Haraz showed plenty of promise in finishing third of seven at Gowran Park over this trip a fortnight ago. He showed some obvious inexperience that day, but will come on for having had the run and was only five lengths behind the highly-regarded O’Brien two year old Air Vice Marshal.
He was clearly the best of the five runners not fancied by the market and without the quality of the top two in the betting that day, I think Haraz has every chance of opening his account with a win at 9/4 BOG today.
The biggest danger is likely to be the more experienced/exposed Escondida who continues to improve and did nothing wrong in going down by just a head over course and distance here four weeks ago. That was his third start (342 so far), but his first crack at this 7f trip.
There’s every chance he’ll show a bit more at this distance, as he stayed on strongly last time out and if ridden more prominently today, could well dictate affairs late on to take this one at 2/1 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Marie Des Anges / Escondida @ 8/1 (2/1 & 2/1 : Betfair SB)
Marie Des Anges / Haraz @ 8.75/1 (2/1 & 9/4 : Betfair SB)
Falcarragh / Escondida @ 8/1 (2/1 & 2/1 : Bet365)
Falcarragh / Haraz @ 8/1 (2/1 & 2/1 : Bet365)