Stat of the Day, 6th July 2015
We closed out another successful week with yet another winner at Carlisle to keep this purple patch of results rolling along.
Go Dan Go was held up off the pace towards the rear of before being asked to become a little more involved a couple of furlongs from home and he began to ease his way towards the head of affairs just inside the final 200 yards.
Ans despite conceding 16lbs to his two nearest challengers, the run for the line hasdd been timewd perfectly and he gamely held on to score by half a length.
Further good news came on announcement of an SP of 9/4, which was almost half of the 4/1 we took and beating SP by so much always gives us a boost.
Philip Makin is riding really well at the moment and he handled Saturday’s race perfectly and I’m sticking with him today for what looks his best chance of success from three rides, the…
A Class 4, 7f, handicap on good ground, where you can get 5/2 BOG in quite a few places about David O’Meara’s 4yr old gelding Harwoods Volonte.
Both jockey and trainer are in excellent form, Philip Makin’s SotD win on Saturday formed just part of an excellent set of results for him over the past fortnight, where he has ridden 7 winners from 34. Trainer David, on the other hand is 6/29 in the last week alone.
David O’Meara has done well here at Ayr over the past 3-4 seasons, winning 21 of 101 (20.8% SR) races on this track, producing 33.9pts level stake profit at 33.6% ROI. You can break those runners down in many ways, but with today’s contest in mind, I’m just going to highlight 6 possible niche areas for you to look at. So in descending order of runners…
- Those aged 2 to 7 are 21/90 (23.3% SR) for 44.9pts (+49.9% ROI)
- Those running in handicaps are 20/90 (22.2% SR) for 41.6pts (+46.2% ROI)
- Male runners are 18/81 (22.2% SR) for 19.8pts (+24.5% ROI)
- Those running at 7f to 1m2f are 16/57 (28.1% SR) for 30.8pts (+54.1% ROI)
- Those priced from 7/4 to 6/1 are 18/49 (36.7% SR) for 30.9pts (+63.1%ROI)
- Those whose last run was 11 to 25 days ago are 9/33 (27.3% SR) for 48.7pts (+147.53% ROI)
You can, of course, combine all of those profitable angles to make yourself a micro-system, but you’d not see very many qualifiers at all, but with a slight easing of the six sets of parameters, I can tell you that…In Ayr handicaps since the start of the 2012 season, David O’Meara’s male runners aged 3 to 7 priced at 7/4 to 61 running after a break of 4 to 45 days are 15/30 (50% SR) for 36.3pts (+121.1% ROI). And you can have that one!
Since 2010, Philip Makin is 29/221 (13.1% SR) here at Ayr for 57.9pts (+26.2% ROI), of which his handicap record is 20/172 (11.6% SR) for 62.6pts (+36.4% ROI). His handicap races over trips of 5f to 1m have produced 14 winners from 132 (10.6% SR) and 73pts (+55.3% ROI) profit, with 2 to 4 yr olds winning 10 of 77 (13% SR) for 89.8pts (+116.7% ROI)
Harwoods Volonte has won five times and been placed 5 times from a total of just 19 starts. He has won on Good to Firm, Good and Good to Soft, so we should be OK here and he has wins at both 6f and 7f and comes here seking a hat-trick to improve his form of 62311 since a switch to the O’Meara camp.
Philip Makin has been in the saddle three times (the last three), finishing 311 and the horse is 4 from at Class 4 level (3/6 on turf), he’s 4 from 12 in fields of 7 to 10 runners and was a winner on hos only previous installation as race favourite.
5/2 BOG is, admittedly, at the lower end of the odds I like to get for SotD, butr there might still be a half point of value in that price for us and I expect to be collecting from my 5/2 BOG bet from Betbright, just aorund the time my daughter gets home from school!
Those of you who don’t like / don’t have an account or are restricted by Betbright can get the same odds from a host of firms, including Betfair SB, Boylesports, Hills and Seanie Mac, whilst Ladbrokes are non-BOG until 9.00am.
Everyone should be able to get my price and you can see how the market is shaping up by…
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