Stat of the Day, 7th July 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 7th July 2015

Close, but not close enough at Ayr on Monday afternoon, after Personal Touch got first run on the field and our runner Harwoods Volonte couldn’t rein him in.

Our boy looked really well up to the point where he should have kicked for home, but looked a little one-paced in the finish and ended in a group of three horses you could have covered with a blanket.

As it was, we lost 2nd place in the tight finish, having to settle for bronze at 15/8, still shorter than our advised odds of 5/2 BOG (9/4 after R4).

A losing start to the week, which I’ll hopefully recoup via Tuesday’s…

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4.25 Wolverhampton:

A Class 5, 7f,  fillies’ handicap on the tapeta, where I’ve just taken 6/1 BOG with Hills about Tom Dascombe’s 3yr old Neutron Bomb.

Tom has been in fine form of late with 12 winners from 51 (23.5% SR) over the past month that have generated level stakes profits of 18pts at an ROI of 35.3%.

Neutron Bomb for her part, is a lightly (4 starts all on turf) raced, but consistent sort who has, to date, finished 3322 in four maidens and not only has she proved consistent, but she ‘s also versatile, having raced at trips of 6 to 7.5 furlongs on ground ranging from soft through to good to firm and now she’ll tackle an A/W surface for the first time.

These Class 5 A/W races are a bit of a goldmine for Tom Dascombe and his followers, as since 2009 his record in such contests stands at 71 winners from 396 (17.9% SR) for 104.5pts (+26.4% ROI). In handicap contests, the figures are 35/200 (17.5% SR) for 63.6pts (+31.8% ROI), whilst his female runners are 27/164 (16.5% SR) for 92.2pts at an ROI of 56.2%. In fillies’ only races his runners are 10/67 (14.9% SR) for 17.8pts (+26.5% ROI)

In Class 5 handicaps at Wolves, Tom’s runners are 18/101 (17.8% SR) for 33.6pts (+33.3% SR) with those priced at 15/8 to 15/2 (where we’ll surely be, somewhere!) there have been 12 winners from 46 (26.1% SR) for 19.3pts at an ROI of 42%.

As I said earlier, after four runs on turf (runner-up by 2.5 L at Chester LTO, 10 days ago), Neutron Bomb follows an often used path for Tom Dascombe runners in being switched to the A/W with the aim of getting a win under their belts.

Since 2009, with horses making their A/W debuts after less than 10 turf outings, Tom’s record is 26/135 (19.3% SR) for 26.5pts (+19.6% ROI), of which…

  • Those running at Class 4/5 level are 18/82 (22% SR) for 29.5pts (+36% ROI)
  • 3 yr olds are 11/46 (23.9% SR) for 24.2pts (+52.6% ROI), whilst…
  • those beaten LTO, but within 5L of the winner are 15/43 (34.9% SR) for 43.3pts (+100.6% ROI)

At 11.15pm on Monday evening, Hills’ 6/1 BOG was the best price in town about Neutron Bomb, with both BetVictor and Paddy Power not too far behind on 11/2 BOG. Check that’s still the case by…

…clicking here for the betting on the 4.25 Wolverhampton

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard.

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