Double Dutch, 8th July 2015
Tuesday was much better than Monday with a winner and the third placed horse in both races.
Riviera Sun just about made all at a snail’s pace at Roscommon before finishing the strongest with Children’s List 1.5 lengths behind, setting us up nicely for Brighton…
…where Juventas was the best of the threee horses that swamped the original leader inside the final furlong and stayed on best to win by half a length with Welsh Inlet a further 2.5 lengths back in third.
Monday’s results were as follows:
Riviera Sun : WON at 11/8 (adv 2/1)
Childrens List : 3rd at 10/3 (adv 9/4)
Juventas : WON at 3/1 (adv 10/3)
Welsh Inlet : 3rd at 17/2 (adv 11/4)
Results to date:
618 winning selections from 2176 = 28.40%
196 winning bets in 564 days = 34.75%
P/L : +122.19pts (+10.84% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
More of the same for Wednesday would be nice…
Hot Spice is turned out under a penalty just seven days after making all to win at Thirsk over a similar trip to today and with no apparent other pace option in the race, he could well assert an easy opeing lead. If this is the case, the others will struggle to reel him in and he could well take this relatively easily at around 3/1 BOG.
He’s a former course and distance winner, so he’s used to the conditions here if nothing else, but I should add that he wouldn’t want it to get much softer than present. Looking at his career profile, all his best work has been at this trip, he prefers to go left handed and goes well under today’s jockey. The weather is the unknown factor for Hot Spice here.
High Secret was second off today’s mark over today’s trip at Kempton a week ago and since going handicapping last September has won four of eight starts, making the frame (322) in three of his four defeats. He now drops down in class to represent a yard with a 35% strike rate at this track in the last five seasons.
An easier task allied to slightly quicker ground (providing it doesn’t hammer it down!) might be all that’s needed for High Secret to improve upon last week’s 2.75 length defeat and if you think that’s feasible, odds of up to 7/2 BOG are on offer here.
Acolyte hasn’t raced here at Kempton since winning a course and distance maiden 10 months ago, but comes here in good form (232) from three decent efforts on the turf this season, most notably in losing by 1.25 and 1 length in a pair of runner-up finishes at Windsor. Well drawn in stall 1 with conditions looking ideal, this 3yr old should take full advantage of his 6lb weight for age allowance to score again at 5/2 BOG, whilst a similar price is available…
…for Spring Fling, who I see as the biggest danger. She’s a lightly raced 4yr old, but if ready to go after a long (223 days) layoff, would go close if running to the same levels as displayed last season. Beaten by just a neck into second place over this trip on soft ground at Salisbury, she then made all to win at Windsor before rounding off the campaign with a decent runner-up finish over this course and distance.
Spring Fling is in very good hands at the Candy yard and the team have been around the block enough to know whether she’s ready or not.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Hot Spice / Acolyte @ 14.17/1 (10/3 & 5/2 : BetVictor)
Hot Spice / Spring Fling @ 14.17/1 (10/3 & 5/2 : BetVictor)
High Secret / Acolyte @ 14.75/1 (7/2 & 5/2 : Hills)
High Secret / Spring Fling @ 14.17/1 (10/3 & 5/2 : BetVictor)