Stat of the Day, 9th July 2015
As many of you thought might be the case, Stoneham wasn’t good enough at Wolverhampton on Wednesday. He never really got involved in the race, languishing at the rear of the field and making little impact.
And as quite a few suggested to me, both publicly and privately, Noguchi was the eventual winner and he finished the race impressively it has to be said, with our boy a good 9.5 lengths back in 5th place after a drift out to 7/1.
I hold my hands up in so much that I got the race wrong, but those of you who may have only joined us recently will need to get used to this happening. We’ve been doing SotD for 4 yrs in November and we’re still getting it wrong 5 times out of 7! 😀
Hopefully that won’t be the case on Thursday with a more simplistic approach in the finale at HQ, the…
And a 10/3 BOG bet on Richard Fahey’s 4yr old gelding, the Dutch-sounding Irish horse, Jan Van Hoof. In fact I’m sure Bolton had a centre half called that when Big Sam was in charge, but that’s another story!
Anyway, to the job in hand. The July course at Newmarket has, like all courses, its own quirks and idiosyncracies and not all trainers fare well here, but since 2009, Richard Fahey has excelled with his Northern raiders in handciaps here when they’ve been priced as though they at least had half a chance.
In numbers, I’m talking about trhose priced at 12/1 and shorter, fo which Richard has tasted success 16 times from 58 runners. It’s not the largest of sample sizes we’ve used on SotD, but there aren’t as many races on this track as many others.
This 16/58 record equates to a strike rate of 27.6% for profits of 57.8pts at an ROI of 99.7%, which is very impressive indeed and from this starting point, closer examination reveals…
…over trips of 5f to 7f, his runners are 13/41 (31.7% SR) for 56.5pts (+137.7% ROI) and…
…in the month of July, they are 7/22 (31.8% SR) for 37.3pts (+169.4% ROI), whilst…
…his record at the July Festival is 6/14 (42.9% SR) for 42.6pts (+304.6% ROI) and…
…when David Nolan has taken the ride, the team has won 3 of 7 (42.9% SR) for a mere 14.4pts (+205.7% ROI)
Jan Van Hoof was a recent winner last time out in a 5f handicap at Pontefract and although he’s up 6lb for that win, he still receives weight from his rivals here.
He’s very lightly raced for his age and should still have plenty of further improvement to offer and in four runs to date, hasn’t finished out of the first two home (2211) with a previous win at this trip and also on good to firm ground. He’s 211 in races of 8 to 10 runners and it’s worth a quick look back at that Pontefract win.
It was actually his handicap debut that day and despite not having raced for 7 months, he beat Sleeping Apache by a length and a quarter with the latter only getting beaten by a head on the line in a tougher contest last week. The third placed horse from that Pontefract win, Stonefield Flyer has had a win and two very narrow defeats in three starts since and the 5th placed horse had improved to also finish as a runner-up twice.
Conditions are ideal for Jan Van Hoof here and he’s currently priced up at 100/30 BOG to reclaim a race won by his trainer three years ago. That price is quite widely available, so take your pick of the bookies by…
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