Double Dutch, 9th July 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 9th July 2015

Back to back doubles have edged us closer to the 200 winner milestone after successes at both Catterick and Kempton yesterday.

Hot Spice was withdrawn from the first race shortly after I’d published my blog after his handlers decided (as I feared they might!) that the going wasn’t conducive to a good run. He now runs today in the 5.40 Doncaster.

This meant that not only did we now only have one runner at Catterick, but that our odds were reduced by 20% to 2.8/1. As it happens, High Secret shrugged off the burden of top weight to win a shade cosily by just over two lengths at a well-backed 13/8.

We then had a long wait until the last race at Kempton, but it was worth the wait, as Acolyte made all and hung on to win by 1.25 lengths with our other runner Spring Fling 4 lengths further back in 4th place.

We picked up two bonuses in that race, Acolyte’s drift out to 3/1 boosted our payout and the withdrawal of Hot Spice meant we also got paid on a single on Acolyte, all of which led to us making almost as much as we would have done pre-Rule 4.

Wednesday’s results were as follows:

High Secret : WON at 13/8 (adv 7/2 = 14/5 after R4)
Hot Spice : non-runner (adv 10/3)
Acolyte : WON at 3/1 (adv 5/2)
Spring Fling : 4th at 11/8 (adv 5/2)

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Results to date:
620 winning selections from 2180 = 28.44%
197 winning bets in 565 days = 34.88%

Stakes: 1129.50pts
Returns: 1257.84pts
P/L : +128.34pts (+11.36% ROI)


Thursday’s hat-trick contenders are as follows…

5.10 Doncaster :

Sleeping Apache has been running really well this season and was a winner on his yearly reappearance at Pontefract in April. Since then he has finished as runner-up in each of his three starts and never beaten by far. The latest of those runs came off today’s mark back at Pontefract ten days ago when he was nailed on the line despite coming from a supposedly unfavourable draw.

A similar level of performance could well be enough to win what looks a slightly weaker affair here and it should be noted he was 5 lengths clear of the third placed horse and with today’s jockey taking 7lbs off, Sleeping Apache could be a decent proposition at 7/2 BOG. If, however, he has to settle for second best once again, the one likeliest to beat him is…

…the lightly raced 3 yr old handicap debutant Balliol, who comes here off the back of a good win at Windsor 12 days ago on only his second outing. He made all that day without being pushed and could easily have won by much further than the 2.25 lengths margin he achieved. His only other run and debut saw him run well, if a little green at Bath a fortnight earlier, beaten by 3.5 lengths into 4th place.

Only the winner and the third place horse from that bath race have run since, but both have won and this franking of the form, allied to his trainer’s excellent record with handicap debutants plus his handy 5lb weight for age allowance make Balliol my pick here at 10/3 BOG with Coral.


5.30 Newmarket :

Estidhkaar won two Group 2 contests last yeart and whilst not quite hitting those heights this year, was a decent runner-up in the Greenham Stakes on his seasonal reappearance back in April, when only going down by a neck to Muhaarar. The quality of his run in that Gr3 Grrenham run was highlighted just three weeks ago when Muhaarar won a very comfotable winner of the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Ascot.

Estidhkaar‘s own subsequent one was a disappointment, it has to be said. Something wasn’t right on the day as he was 14th of 18 in the Guineas and that possibly explains his recent 10-week layoff. This, of course, whilst a good race, is a far weaker affair than both of the contests he has faced this season and could well be the ideal springboard to a late summer flourish. If you like him, he’s 15/8 BOG at the moment.

Bossy Guest, on the other hand, has been a revelation this season. He won a valuable Class2 contest on his reappearance in mid-April here at Newmarket, before running a fantastic 4th at a big price in the 2,000 Guineas, beaten by only 3.5 lengths and some 8.5 lengths ahead of Estidhkaar.

He then found 7f at Ascot a little too sharp for him next/last time out when outpaced in the Jersey Stakes three weeks ago. He was, however, doing his best work at the finish, staying on strongly to take the bronze medal in the closing strides. A step back up to a mile should suit him better and I think Bossy Guest has an excellent chance at 11/4 BOG today

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Balliol / Estidhkaar @ 10.92/1 (10/3 & 7/4 : Coral)
Balliol / Bossy Guest @ 14.17/1 (10/3 & 5/2 : Coral)
Sleeping Apache / Estidhkaar @ 11.94/1 (7/2 & 15/8 : Betfred, SkyBet & ToteSport)
Sleeping Apache / Bossy Guest @ 15.25/1 (10/3 & 11/4 : BetVictor)

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