Stat of the Day, 10th July 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th July 2015

I think I touched a raw nerve with some of you not quite used to my style of writing yesterday, when I suggested that you needed to be ready to sustain some losses.

Whilst myself and Matt are (quite rightly!) fiercely proud of our 28 to 29% strike rate ( ie 2-in-7), I was merely trying to manage your expectations, because to be quite frank (and I’ve said little/nothing about this until now), I was quite disappointed with some of the comments left / emails sent, just because we backed a couple of losers.

The recent purple patch of winners cannot and will not be sustained, it stands to reason that we’re going to have losing runs, the most recent of which ended yesterday with a fine win for Jan Van Hoof in a tight finish. Delivered by David Nolan, he hit the front at just the right time in a race where the first four home were only separated by a neck or so.

The only negative was the 20p Rule 4 deduction we incurred, but even after that, our 2.66/1 returns were still almost 20% higher than taking the 9/4 SP. We now roll on to Friday and a trip to the Roodee for the…

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9.15 Chester :

A Class 4, 1m 2.5f handicap for 3 yr olds, where I’m siding with Kevin Ryan’s gelding Cyril, who can be backed at 9/2 BOG.

Since the start of the 2010 season, Kevin’s record here on the Roodee is reasonable if not spectacular with 16 winners from 106 (15.1% SR) runners and 10.6pts (+10% ROI) of level stakes profits. And although we like a bit more meat on the bones than 10%, it’s a good starting point and I’ve got seven (yes, 7!) different ways that you could back the Ryan runners and increase the ROI.

So, in decreasing sample size we have…

  1. Handicappers : 12/81 (14.8% SR) for 10.2pts (+12.6% ROI)
  2. Aged 2 to 4 : 14/75 (18.7% SR) for 26.8pts (+35.7% ROI)
  3. 6f to 11f : 12/67 (17.9% SR) for 14pts (+20.9% ROI)
  4. Classes 3 & 4 : 11/60 (18.3% SR) for 28.8pts (+48% ROI)
  5. July to September : 13/58 (22.4% SR) for 39pts (+67.3% ROI)
  6. Carrying 9-0 to 9-7 : 13/55 (23.6% SR) for 32.4pts (+58.8% ROI)
  7. 3/1 to 9/1 : 13/52 (25% SR) for 40.1pts (+77.1% ROI)

All of which are viable angles to aim at. Obviously you could make combinations of them in a host of ways, but with a slight relaxation of some of the categories’ parameters, you could end up with the following set of criteria…

Kevin Ryan’s Chester Class 3 & 4 handicappers aged 2 to 5 carrying 8-11 to 9-7 in the months of July to September over trips of 6f to 11f are 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 42.5pts (+326.9% ROI) profit, with those priced at 8/1 or shorter winning 5 of 7 (71.4$ SR) for 28.5pts (+406.8% ROI).

Kevin has five runners out on Friday, but with four of them going to York, this leaves Cyril as the sole representative on this track today, but Mr Ryan seems to do well with those solo travellers and since 2010 at tracks where he’s had just one runner, he has managed to clock up 190 winners from 1101 (17.3% SR) runners, generating 735.6pts (+66.8% ROI) profit in the process.

On the Flat, those figures are 97/641 (15.1% SR) for 5832pts (+90.8% ROI), of which 2 to 4 yr olds are 87/545 (16% SR) for 605.9pts (+111.2% ROI). These younger horses are 85/528 (16.1% SR) for 612.3pts (+116% ROI).

Of those 528 runners, there’s a 13/61 (21.3% SR) for 153.8pts (+252.2% ROI) record here in God’s Own Country aka the North-West of England with Chester supplying 4 winners form 15 (26.7% SR) runners for profits of 20.1pts (+134.2% ROI).

Cyril was a winner last time out, scoring by a length and a quarter at Pontefract three weeks ago, doing all his work in the closing stages and staying on as though he had more to give and also wanted further. He gets a tougher challenge here and an extra half furlong, which should suit him, making him a serious contender at 9/2 BOG with both Boylesports & Seanie Mac, whilst everyone else seems to be offering 4/1 BOG (which is still worth having), as you’ll see by…

…clicking here for the betting on the 9.15 Chester

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Here is today’s racecard.

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