Double Dutch, 11th July 2015
After a poor day on Thursday, it was good to bounce back with a winning double on Friday for our third success in four days!
Lydias Place took the honours at York in dramatic fashion. She was in the process of a routine made all win when the saddle slipped and she hung badly right towards the end, but managed to hold on for a gutsy win by a head.
And the margin of victory 20 minutes later at Newmarket was even narrower as Illuminate had to dig really deep to repel two challengers, holding off the fast finishing Besharah by just a nose.
We’ve lost plenty by similar margins in the past, so we probably deserved this one and a nice 10/1 payout.
Friday’s results were as follows:
Lydias Place : WON at 5/2 (adv 3/1)
Wedge : 6th at 4/1 (adv 3/1)
Illuminate : WON at 7/4 (adv 7/4)
Easton Angel : 4th at 7/4 (adv 7/4)
Results to date:
622 winning selections from 2187 = 28.44%
198 winning bets in 567 days = 34.92%
P/L : +129.84pts (+11.45% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
This week’s last picks are…
Where Space Age seeks back to back course and distance wins and also a fourth win in his last five outings. He was last seen winning here over track and trip a little over three weeks ago when pretty much making all and toughing it out to a 1.25 lengths victory. After just six starts, he’s still lightly raced and will have favoured conditions at play here.
He’s already 2 from 3 (311) on this quicker ground and 2 from 2 under William Buick and that latest win was in a far better race than this one, as it was the highly competitive 17-runner King George V stakes and a similar run should have Space Age seriously involved at the finish at odds of 11/4 BOG. The only negative I can think of is an 8lb hike in weights, which might well help…
…King Bolete who was back in 4th place in that race here last time out, beaten by just 2.5 lengths staying on strongly at the finish. He’s also up 2lbs for that run, but the 6lb pull he now gets from Space Age could make this a very tight affair.
He’ll also be aided by the fact there are 9 fewer runners here today, thus reducing the chance of him getting trapped again like he was last time and with a clearer run, I’d expect King Bolete to run very well again and there could well be some mileage / value in his current 7/2 BOG odds with Bet365.
Roger Varian’s filly Ajaadat has been very consistent in her short racing career to date, finishing 242 before breaking her duck in her fourth and final run of last season. She was running on well at the finish in that encounter at Beverley and scored by 1.25 lengths. She then took a break of nine months before reappearing at Thirsk just over three weeks ago, beaten into second place by a couple of lengths.
She looked rusty that day and in need of the run and is sure to come on for having had the pipe opener. With both yard and jockey in fine form (we could have a Buick cross card double here), Ajaadat is the one to beat for me at 15/8 BOG with Paddy Power, especially as she now takes a drop in class to run here.
The one likeliest to cause her a problem looks like being Hard to Handel, who was a fine winner last time out, when benefiting from a change in tactics at Windsor over this trip a fortnight ago. Having been used as a hold up horse in past runs, he was allowed his head last time out, virtually making all and finding a bit more when needed on his way to a 1 length victory.
He is, of course, up in weight as a result of that win, but the third placed horse has already run again and improved to within a neck of victory and I think there’s still plenty of scope for improvement in this one too. Ajaadat aside, there doesn’t seem to be too much to beat here and if similar tactics are employed and he’s allowed an easy lead, then Hard to Handel might just live up to his name at odds of 3/1 BOG with Coral.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Space Age / Ajaadat @ 9.78/1 (11/4 & 15/8 : Paddy Power)
Space Age / Hard to Handel @ 14/1 (11/4 & 3/1 : Coral)
King Bolete / Ajaadat @ 11.38/1 (7/2 & 7/4 : Bet365)
King Bolete / Hard to Handel @ 15/1 (3/1 & 3/1 : Coral)