SotD, Monday 13th July 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 13th July 2015

No winning end to what was another good week for SotD, as Chadic could only manage third place at Chester on Saturday.

He ran well enough in fairness, but had no finishing to kick to help overhaul the leader who had made all and beat our runner by just three parts of a length.

Monday marks the start of a new week and six more opportunities starting with the…

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8.10 Wolverhampton :

Where I’ve just taken 4/1 BOG from Bet365 about Giles Bravery’s 7 yr old gelding Fire In Babylon who will seek to extend Giles’ good record at this venue.

Since 2007, Giles Bravery’s runners are 14/68 (20.6% SR) for 114.6pts (+168.6% ROI) here at Dunstall Park and Fire In Babylon was one of those winners as recently as two starts ago when winning over today’s course and distance and although he was well beaten (7.5L) last time out, just five days ago..

It has to be said, though that he didn’t cope with the extra 2 furlongs after being upped in weight and looks more likey to perform dropped back in trip. He’s 6/37 on the All-Weather to date, including three wins from eight runs here at Wolverhampton, whilst today’s jockey Adam Beschizza has a decent 4/15 record on the horse.

Giles Bravery’s horses who are turned out within 4 to 15 days of a top 4 finish LTO since 2010 are 14/48 (29.2% SR) for 23.1pts (+48.1% ROI) profit and whilst it’s not the biggest sample size we’ve ever used, there are some interesting angles to be considered here (in descending order of numbers of runners)…

  1. Those priced at 7/4 to 11/2 : 11/27 (40.7% SR) for 27.1pts (+100.5% ROI)
  2. Beaten by 2 to 10 lengths LTO : 7/17 (41.2% SR) for 24.5pts (+144.3% ROI)
  3. Class 6 runners : 7/17 (41.2% SR) for 19.6pts (+115.3% ROI)
  4. Here at Wolverhampton : 3/8 (37.5% SR) for 2.1pts (+26.3% ROI)
  5. Finished 4th LTO : 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 19.5pts (+278.5% ROI)
  6. Ridden by Adam Beschizza : 2/4 (50% SR) for 1.8pts (+45.2% ROI)

Despite the above subsets having just a small number of qualifiers, the figures are very good and as I don’t really believe in coincidence, there’s enough there for me to put my hand in my pocket and back Fire In Babylon at 4/1 BOG with Bet365, whilst the rest of the market will be found by…

…clicking here for the betting on the 8.10 Wolverhampton

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Here is today’s racecard.

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