Double Dutch, 14th July 2015
Close but no cigar was the verdict from Monday evening’s races, as El Fenix’s defeat by a length was all that stood between us and a nice double at 16.88/1.
No real complaints about any of our picks, we just got undone by a faster finisher at Wolverhampton,. but there’ll be days when we nick one late on too!
Monday’s results were as follows:
El Fenix : 3rd at 9/2 (adv 3/1)
Sciustree : 6th at 9/2 (adv 5/2)
Keep In Line : WON at 9/4 (adv 13/8)
L’Ingenue : 3rd at 7/4 (adv 11/4)
Results to date:
624 winning selections from 2195 = 28.43%
198 winning bets in 569 days = 34.80%
P/L : +125.84pts (+11.06% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
After a couple of near misses, a bit more needed from Tuesday’s picks…
Two wins from 91 runs is the collective record of the 12 runners here for this one, so we’re not exactly dealing with top class performers! That said, we do have to have a winner and Hold Firm looks to have the best form of those here. He was a winner at Wolverhampton back in February and since then has been running consistently well despite not winning.
He never seems to get beaten by far and in six subsequent outings since that win, his record reads 223422 and now up against rivals who don’t seem to know how to win, he’s quite possibly the best of a bad bunch. He’s obviously one of the more exposed horses in the field today, but having been knocking on the door so often of late, I was surprised to see Hold Firm as long as 7/2 BOG in places.
His issue is, of course, that he seems to always bump into one too good on the day and generally an improving type and it’s not unreasonable to suggest it could happen again today in the shape of Knight of the Air, who currently trades as the 5/2 BOG favourite with most firms.
He didn’t run as a 2yr old and has got better in each of his five runs to date, culminating in a defeat by just a neck last Tuesday at Brighton, when he got collared really late on by a more savvy opponent. The switch to the A/W is interesting as the Channon/Bishop partnership has a good record on this track and it’s not inconceivable that Knight of the Air could be their latest winner.
I liked the look of Thankstomonty at Ayr yesterday, but he was withdrawn from that contest and rediverted here by his handlers, possibly suggesting they felt this was a more winnable contest? Conjecture aside, we do know that David O’Meara’s runners tend to fare best here in Yorkshire and his runners are already 5/24 in handicaps on this track this season.
For his own part, the horse has been going well this season, showing gradual improvement in three outings (finishing 242), before winning at Beverley 11 days ago. Confidence should be high and if further improvement is forthcoming, then a 2lb rise in weight might not be enough to anchor Thankstomonty who can be backed at 3/1 BOG.
I’d expect the big danger to come from the progressive looking Stoneboat Bill, who has looked a different animal since going handicapping. He won over course and distance on his last visit to Thirsk five weeks ago and although he has been beaten in two subsequent turns over longer trips at Nottingham, he hasn’t been too far off the pace.
The drop back in trip to a mile should help today and it’s worth noting that he was half a length ahead of Stone Roses at Nottingham recently, with the latter going on to win easily at Chepstow just four days ago and also bearing in mind he won by a good 7 lengths the last time he was here, Stoneboat Bill is a likely player at 7/2 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Knight of the Air / Thankstomonty @ 13/1 (5/2 & 3/1 : Bet365, Betfred & Totesport)
Knight of the Air / Stoneboat Bill @ 15.25/1 (9/4 & 4/1 : Coral)
Hold Firm / Thankstomonty @ 15.88/1 (7/2 & 11/4 : Betfair)
Hold Firm / Stoneboat Bill @ 19.25/1 (7/2 & 7/2 : Betfair)