Stat of the Day, 15th July 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 15th July 2015

As Tuesday’s runners hit the furlong marker at Thirsk, I thought we were well set for another victory from Ellas Honour. She had tracked the leaders three or four lengths off the pace and made headway to join the leader with 200 yards to run, ready for a sprint to the line.

Unfortunately when push came to shove, our girl found little extra and the eventual winner just about had enough to hold on in what was a pretty lacklustre climax from both combatants.

We managed to beat the 2/1 SP by a quarter point, but that was little comfort after a race that was a bit of a non-event (and I’m not talking through my pocket here).

Summer jumping is the fare for Wednesday with an in-form runner in the…

9.10 Worcester :

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A Class 4, 2 mile, handicap hurdle for nine runners on good ground, where David Dennis’ 7yo gelding Hawdyerwheesht is rated an 11/4 BOG chance of making it back to back course and distance wins under Noel Fehily in the space of 9 days.

David Dennis hasn’t held a licence for very long, but he certainly knows what he’s doing and is already carving out a name for himself, especially in NH handicaps, where his runners are 32/193 (16.6% SR) for 55.6pts (+28.8% ROI) since the start of last year.

Of those runners, his hurdlers are 21/136 (15.4% SR) for 47.3pts (+34.8% ROI) and those sent off at odds of 5/4 to 6/1 are 26/84 (31% SR) for 51.8pts (+61.6% ROI).

His hurdlers in that odds range are 16/54 (29.6% ) for 28.8pts (+53.4% ROI) of which those running at Class 4/5 are 13/39 (33.33% SR) for 29pts (+74.3% ROI) from which those running at trips of 2m3f and shorrter are 7/16 (43.75% SR) for 24.7pts (+154.7% ROI)

Hawdyerwheesht is a decent hurdler, having won four times and been placed on eight other occasions from his 18 starts over timber and was a pretty comfortable winner over course and distance last week, scoring by 8 lengths.

This places him into another of the micros I consider when looking for selections, in that since the start of 2012, male handicap hurdlers who were winners last time out in the previous 60 days  by 4 lengths or more in another handicap hurdle, doubled up on 239/939 (25.5% SR) occasions. This remarkable strike rate has already generated 183.4pts profit at an ROI of 19.5%. 939 bets over 42 months might be too many for some, so let’s break it down with some logical filters…

  • 5 to 11 yr olds are 231/900 (25.7% SR) for 186.7pts (+20.7% ROI)
  • Those who last ran (and won) 4 to 45 days ago are 228/890 (25.6% SR) for 185.2pts (+20.8% ROI)
  • Those who now run at trips shorter than 2m5f are 160/585 (27.4% SR) for 171.3pts (+29.3% ROI)
  • Class 4/5 runners are 140/434 (32.3% SR) for  117.6pts (+27.1% ROI)
  • Those running here at Worcester are 13/27 (48.2% SR) for 24.9pts (+92.1% ROI)

If from the above you wanted a small, but profitable microsystem that gave you around 70 bets per year, then how about 5 to 11 yr olds, running 4 to 45 days since their LTO win at trips shorter than 2m5f at Class 4/5?  This would have given you 80 winners from 244 bets (32.8% SR) and 69.6pts of profit at an ROI of 28.5%.

Such horses are 4/13 (30.8% SR) for 4.8pts (+36.6% ROI) profit here at Worcester and alongside the stats to back up the selection, Hawdyerwheesht would appear to have race conditions in his favour too.

In no particular order, he has one win from three (521) here at Worcester, all over course and distance and has finshed second and first in the two starts under Noel Fehily. He is 3 from 5 when priced below 7/2 and he has 4 wins from 11 in races of 6 to 9 runners.

Hawdyerwheesht has won 4 of 10 races on good ground, finishing 111321 in his last six outings and has won a couple of races at this trip.He’s 4 from 14 when racing within 25 days of his last run, he’#s 3 from 10 wqith a tongue tie, 1 from 2 in cheekpieces and like last time out, he wears both today.

Hawdyerwheesht is available at 11/4 BOG with a variety of firms, I’m on with Hills, but you can see what your preferred bookie is offering by…

…clicking here for the betting on the 9.10 Worcester

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard.

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