Double Dutch, 15th July 2015
When a fourth placed finish at 4/1, beaten by over three lengths is your best result of the day, you know you’ve struggled and that proved to be the case for DD yesterday. Hold Firm and Knight of the Air were only a short head apart at Lingfield, but with three other runners in front of them and that 3 lengths gap, our bet was down for the day.
The pride salvaging mission later at Thirsk proved to be even worse as our runners came home 5th and 8th of just nine runners, beaten by 4L and 11.5L respectively on a day to forget.
Thankfully, we don’t have too many days like that!
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
Hold Firm : 4th at 4/1 (adv 7/2)
Knight of the Air : 5th at 5/4 (adv 5/2)
Stoneboat Bill : 5th at 6/4 (adv 4/1)
Thankstomonty : 8th at 5/1 (adv 3/1)
Results to date:
624 winning selections from 2199 = 28.38%
198 winning bets in 570 days = 34.74%
P/L : +123.84pts (+10.87% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
My selected races for Wednesday are…
Which, on the face of things, looks a pretty desperate affair, but could offer Eland Ally the chance of doubling his number of career wins! In fairness, he has run pretty well of late, making the frame on a couple of occasions in handicap company in far better races than this one.
This looks like a marked drop in class here for a horse running in a seller for the first time and with his yard having a good record in seller races and him looking the best at the weights, today could well be Eland Ally‘s day at 3/1 BOG.
The market, however, seems to prefer Grey Destiny, who has been installed as the 15/8 BOG favourite here, presumably on the back of a couple of narrow defeats over this trip recently.
In fairness, this is also a step down in quality for the horse and if reproducing the form from those two defeats, then it could well be all it takes for Grey Destiny to break his duck here. The booking of jockey David Allan is a positive one for me, as he’s 4/17 in the past week and 4/9 here at Catterick this year and has a longer-term 16% strike rate at this track.
Witrh 14 races under her belt, Baileys Pursuit is easily the most exposed runner here (her 7 rivals have just 29 starts between them!), but she has been running consistently well and rounded off as good spell with a win over this trip at Wolverhampton last time out. That ended a 40-day run of form reading 3231 and she’s been allowed 16 days to get over that win, so should be fresh enough today.
She is up 5lbs for that win, which might look a tad harsh for a one length margin of victory, but closer inspection of the race shows she completely blew the start and handed her rivals several lengths, which is far from ideal in a 6f contest, so 5lbs might actually be quite fair. She goes equally well on turf as she does on A/W and the blinkers she wore for the first time LTO are reapplied here. Baileys Pursuit is currently priced at 2/1 BOG.
Of her rivals here, only Dunnscotia has any real form to consider, having made the frame in two of his last three outings and this one improved upon his seasonal reappearance when second of 8 in handicap at Bath over this trip last month. He was a length and a half ahead of the 3rd-placed Magical Daze that day and the latter has since reappeared and won by three lengths over this trip and if he improves as much as she did, then Dunnscotia has a real chance here at 9/4 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Grey Destiny / Baileys Pursuit @ 7.63/1 (15/8 & 2/1 : Bet365, Betfair & Stan James)
Grey Destiny / Dunnscotia @ 8.34/1 (15/8 & 9/4 : Stan James)
Eland Ally / Baileys Pursuit @ 11/1 (3/1 & 2/1 : Hills)
Eland Ally / Dunnscotia @ 12/1 (3/1 & 9/4 : Hills)