Stat of the Day, 16th July 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 16th July 2015

It’s approaching 7.30pm on a lovely warm summer’s evening here in East Lancashire and Wednesday’s SotD hasn’t run yet, so I don’t know the result right now, but I’ve already picked Thursday’s runner and rather than sit on it for a couple of hours, you might as well take a look at the…

5.35 Leicester :

And Chris Wall’s 5 yr old mare, Silvala Dance, who can be backed at 7/2 BOG.

Chris Wall is in a real purple patch at present and in the last month has had 7 winners from 31 (22.6% SR) for 74.2pts (+239.3% ROI), When the ROI is so high, there’s clearly a big priced winner in there, so we’ll focus on those running at odds of 11/2 and shorter (ie our usual target area for SotD bets) and those horses are 5/14 (35.7% SR) for 11.3pts (+80.7% ROI) in the last month.

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Chris doesn’t actually send many runners to Leicester for one reason or another, but it can’t be because they don’t win, as his string are 5/31 (16.1% SR) for 11.8pts (+38.2% ROI) here since 2008 with those priced at 6/4 to 11/1 winning 5 of 22 (22.7% SR) for 20.8pts (+94.7% ROI).

This 5 yr old mare, Silvala Dance was a winner last time out, scoring cosily at Windsor over today’s 6f trip just 10 days ago at this grade and on similarly good to firm ground under today’s jockey.

Since 2008, Chris Wall has done well turning horses out pretty quickly after a good run and those who finished in the first four home last time out and then ran again within 15 days are 22/118 (18.6% SR) for 20.9pts (+17.7% ROI) with those whose last run was 6 to 10 days ago winning 10 of 32 (31.25% SR) for 16pts (+50% ROI). 8 of those 32 were sent off at 4/1 or shorter producing 4 winners (50% SR) and 2.5pts (+31.25% ROI) profit.

Today’s jockey has a 3lb claim to use here and since 2009, Chris Wall’s horses are 14/72 (19.4% SR) for 11.5pts (+16% ROI) when ridden by a 3lb claimer in a Flat handicap, with those priced at Evens to 7/1 winning 13 of 34 (38.2% SR) for 34.7pts (+102.1% ROI).

Jockey Sam Clarke might not have too many hours on the clock, but he’s no mug. He’s already 2 from 5 this season, including that win on Silvala Dance last time out, suggesting he has some inkling of how to handle her.

As for the lady herself, an overall record of 2 wins from 14 might not be too inspiring, but this daughter of Kyllachy (speed in the genes) is 2 from 6 on turf, which looks and sounds far better!

And on turf, she is 2/5 at this trip, 1/2 with Sam Clarke, 1/1 on good to firm ground, 2/3 at this level, 2/3 running within a fortnight of her last outing, 2/2 in July/August and 2/5 on the straight.

Conditions look ideal for her here and with the above stats taken into consideration, I’m more than happy to back Silvala Dance at 7/2 BOG. I’m using Bet365, but Hills are also showing the same price, as are BetVictor and Paddy Power, so feel free to take your pick by…

…clicking here for the betting on the 5.35 Leicester

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Here is today’s racecard.

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