Double Dutch, 16th July 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 16th July 2015

After Tuesday’s debacle, it was good to get two winners in back to back races early on Wednesday and with one of them drifting out by half a point, we secured a very handy 9.06/1 double.

Grey Destiny kicked things off by beating Betty Boo by a length at Catterick with our other runner, Eland Ally just a head further back in third place.

So, eyes then turned to Lingfield 10 minutes later, where we landed a 1-2 with our longer priced (but my preferred!) runner taking the spoils at 5/2 out from 2/1, rewarding those playing the combos with a pleasant little 6.4/1 forecast.

Wednesday’s results were as follows:

Grey Destiny : WON at 5/4 (adv 15/8)
Eland Ally : 3rd at 2/1 (adv 3/1)
Baileys Pursuit : WON at 5/2 (adv 2/1)
Dunnscotia : 2nd at 7/4 (adv 9/4)
The forecast paid £7.39 here

Results to date:
626 winning selections from 2203 = 28.42%
199 winning bets in 571 days = 34.85%

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Stakes: 1141.50pts
Returns: 1268.37pts
P/L : +126.87pts (+11.11% ROI)


Thursday’s picks are as follows…

2.20 Leicester :

Martini Time was a solid runner-up on debut at Haydock in late May, finishing behind only a subsequent Group 3 runner-up and bounced back from a disappointing run at Pontefract to land a 6f maiden at Hamilton on her third and latest start three weeks ago. All three efforts came within four weeks of each other, so the short break might help to keep her fresh.

She may well have only won by a neck last time out, but she had problems at the start getting bashed and bumped, but still recovered to win, so the margin could well have been greater. Only the last two home that day have reappeared since, but Candy Hill (6th, 14L back) has since gone down by just a neck last Saturday to Mr Chuckles who was 7th (22 lengths) in Martini Time‘s win. More is expected from this one and she looks decent value at 3/1 BOG with Coral.

The one she’s likely to have to beat is Charlie Appleby’s Roaring Forties from a yard that always seems to be in form and is also one of the best around at picking races for their runners to make their handicap debuts. Matt (GGZ) has written in the past about racecard form bewing misleading at best and here’s a prime example. Finishes of 042 don’t tell us anything apart from that results are getting better, but closer inspection show he’s better than bare form.

He didn’t handle the soft conditions well on debut and a switch to better ground second time out saw him finish fourth at Haydock behind three runners who became Gr2 horses, including placers in the Coventry and the July Stakes.

He was then only beaten by half a length by the well thought of Fahey runner, Fishergate at Ripon last time out. The fifth place horse was almost 6 lengths further back, but she has since reappeared and won, suggesting that today could be Roaring Forties’ day at 2/1 BOG (Betfair)


2.40 Hamilton :

Alaskan Wing carries a double penalty (12lbs) for a course and distance win here 5 days ago that came off the back of a win over 6f at Catterick three days earlier. He’s obviously in prime form and connections are seeking an 8-day here before he gets reassessed. Last time out’s 3lb claimer Joe Doyle is replaced by 7lb claimer Josh Doyle today to allevaite some of the extra burden, but the manner of his win on Saturday suggests he might not have finished winning just yet.

He was never really put under any pressure  and once asked to go and win the race he put his foot down, opened up an unassailable lead and then just pretty much did enough to ensure he won by a couple of lengths. The extra weight will make this tougher and stall 1 isn’t ideal for a horse that often goes right, but Alaskan Wing is the one most likely here at 2/1 BOG (Betfair), probably ahead of…

Pull The Pin, whose installation as 7/2 BOG second favourite suggests this is a weak contest. He hasn’t won on the Flat in 13 attempts since scoring at Catterick back in October 2013 (and has a similarly poor recoird on the A/W), but he’s now proposed as the favourite’s main challenger! In fairness, his turf form has improved this season since his switch to Heather Dalton’s yard and she probably will find a winnable race for him.

He has finished 262 this season and came within a neck of winning at Chepstow on his yard debut and was only beaten by half a length here at Hamilton last Saturday. He’s a former course and distance winner and likes some cut in the ground, so conditions are set to suit Pull The Pin here and he’d be the main beneficiary of any lacklustre effort from Alaskan Wing.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Roaring Forties / Alaskan Wing @ 8/1 (2/1 & 2/1 : SkyBet)
Roaring Forties / Pull The Pin @ 12.50/1 (2/1 & 7/2 : Betfair)
Martini Time / Alaskan Wing @ 9.50/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : Totesport)
Martini Time / Pull The Pin @ 14.75/1 (5/2 & 7/2 : Totesport)

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