Double Dutch, 18th July 2015
Back to winning ways on Friday, with a big shortener and a small drifter. Tasleet got the ball rolling by quickening impressively to win from an unpromising position. He looks a very promising juvenile at this stage, and his SP of 11/8 was much shorter than the 5/2 advised and taken.
In leg two, Andrea Atzeni had few worries aboard a most willing partner in Crew Cut, who won by half a length in dominant fashion. His starting price of 11/4 was marginally greater than the advised 5/2, and of course we scooped the bigger of the pair courtesy of Mr BOG.
In so doing, we notched the 200th successful double on the 573rd day of operation, a strike rate of 34.9% for an ROI of 11.3%
Chris has a rare day off so it’s Matt in the Saturday chair, and I’ll be doing my best to improve the DD score card prior to our traditional rest on Sunday.
Friday’s results were as follows:
Tasleet : WON at 11/8 (adv 5/2)
Opal Tiara: 4th at 5/2 (adv 2/1)
Crew Cut: WON at 11/4 (adv 5/2)
Syrian Pearl : 4th at 7/2 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
629 winning selections from 2211 = 28.45%
200 winning bets in 573 days = 34.9%
P/L : +129.43pts (+11.3% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Saturday sees the start of the quest for the third century of winners, and it all begins in the…
I’m open to accusations of being a tad ‘safe’ here, as I nominate 6/5 shot Consort as leg one part one. But he’s a very sound springboard from which to attempt to leverage a return on the double. Having won in this Listed grade at Sandown on only his second start, he was catapulted into Group 1 company at Royal Ascot, where he led and was only beaten three lengths in third by Gleneagles.
As a 3yo against older horses, he gets a healthy weight for age concession, and that’s been used to excellent effect by his age group six times since 1998, from just 23 runners. The step up in trip is a question mark, and breeding suggests it is not a ‘gimme’, but his overall profile is comfortably the most attractive in the field.
Besides, we have a back up wager in the race, and that will be Mark Johnston’s Fire Fighting. A battle hardened sort – this will be his 11th run of the season, and 37th of his career – Johnston’s four-year-old is both quick and tough. He’s run speed figures that give him the beating of most of these, and his trainer and jockey remain in rude form. Rated only a pound inferior to Consort and Tullius, he gets three pounds from the latter (though gives a few to the former). At 11/2, he’s worth the chance.
More of a chance is taken in leg two, and I very much hope we’re alive for it to be material. Still, I have to keep another progressive Sir Michael Stoute runner onside (he also trains Consort), and so Russian Heroine will be the obvious starting point. She’d looked fairly moderate prior to her recent brace of wins, and appears just to have needed some time.
This is the same class and distance as her most recent win, though a nine pound rise looks challenging. In her favour is that progression, which means she could be more than nine pounds better than that last run, and the fact that her (usually) late-running style makes it hard to know just how much more she has in the tank. 5/2 is sufficient to want to find out.
It is a competitive heat, and I’m reluctantly overlooking Queen’s Pearl and Expensive Date, because I’m taken by the prospects of Secret Hint. Andrew Balding’s lightly raced four year old has won over six at Newmarket, albeit on the Rowley Mile strip, and she’s run with credit off this mark the last three starts, placing twice.
Kieren Shoemark is good value for his five pound claim which effectively means she’s back to a pound below her last winning mark. Conditions are spot on, and I think she could return to winning ways at a rewarding enough price: around 11/2.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Consort / Russian Heroine @ 6.70/1 (6/5 & 5/2 : Skybet)
Consort / Secret Hint @ 13.30/1 (6/5 & 11/2 : PP)
Fire Fighting / Russian Heroine @ 23.50/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : Betfred & Totesport)
Fire Fighting / Secret Hint @ 41.25/1 (6/1 & 11/2 : Betfair Sportsbook)