SotD, Monday 20th July 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 20th July 2015

I was at a function on Friday evening that dragged on into the small hours of Saturday, so thankfully Matt stepped into the breech for us to ensure no loss of service.

When I logged in at lunchtime for quick peek at his pick, I was more than happy to back it myself based on stats and form and was surprised to see him put up a bit of a “no-show”.

He was held in mid-division for a run that never materialised, leaving many people scratching their heads. I say many people, because he was very well backed in from Matt’s advised 6/1 BOG to being sent off as the 9/4 favourite and whilst none of us like backing losers, if we continue to back horses at more than double the SP, we’re on the right path to profit.

From a typically busy and tricky Saturday, we’re back on Mundane Mondays, where quality is in short supply, but I’m very hopeful of one in the…

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6.50 Windsor :

A 10 furlong, Class 5 Maiden for 3/4 yr olds and being a maiden, there’s no winning form to consider, which must make the pair of runner-up finishes achieved by Ataman the best on offer.

Ataman is trained by Roger Charlton, whose horses are going really well again at the moment and in the last month his runners are 7/31 (22.6% SR), whilst in the last two months they are 16/71 (22.5% SR), so there’s some consistency there too. George Baker, who rides Ataman today, is 3/11 (27.3% SR) for 2.5pts (+22.4% ROI) on the Charlton string in the past two months.

Roger Charlton has a long-term 17% strike rate here at Windsor, but rather than rely on past glories, let’s consider more relevant and recent results. Since the start of the 2012 campaign, he is 14/79 (17.7% SR) for 50pts (+63.3% ROI).

George Baker is no mug around these parts either, though and in the last five seasons has ridden 28 winners from 143 (19.6% SR) for 123.4pts (+86.3% ROI) here at Windsor with a record of 7/34 (20.6% SR) for 35.2pts (+103.7% ROI) in maidens and a record on 4/13 (30.8% SR) for 19.7pts (+151.3% ROI) on Roger Charlton’s horses.

As we said earlier, there’s no winning form to refer back to, but Ataman has finished as a runner-up on both starts to date. His first run was 10 weeks ago here at Windsor over today’s course and distance where he was possibly held up a little too long before running on late in the piece.

He then reappeared at Wolverhampton three weeks ago stepped up in trip by 2f and was game in defeat, but was headed with just over a furlong to go and although he was eventually beaten by almost 4 lengths, he was 17 lengths clear of the third placed horse.

The winner that day, Who Dares Wins, has since run and won again (Salisbury, 9 days ago) and it is expected that with further improvement and a drop back in trip, that today will be Ataman‘s day. I certainly hope so, because I’ve just backed him at 3/1 BOG with Bet365 whilst the same price is offered by Betfair’s Sportsbook, BetVictor, 10Bet and Paddy Power.

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Here is today’s racecard.

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