Stat of the Day, 21st July 2015
Monday’s effort petered out a little tamely in the end, after Ataman had seemingly put himself in a position to win. He ranged up alongside the all-time leader Smartie Artie with less than 23 furlongs to run, but never got his head in front.
His challenge fizzled out far to quickly, to the extent that he even lost the runner-up slot just before the line. 3rd at a well backed 9/4 is no disgrace, but it does cost us a point, that I want back ASAP.
So, we’re off to Scotland for the…
A Class 4, 5 furlong handicap for 3yr olds and upwards, where I’m backing Mick Appleby’s Shipyard at 3/1 BOG with Betfair’s Sportsbook.
Mick Appleby’s record in handicap contests since the start of 2010 makes him a man to follow and backing him blindly can make you a decent amount of money, as his 241 winners from 1703 (14.2% SR) runners have generated level stakes profits of 286.4pts at an ROI of 16.8%, which is excellent without filtering any bets out.
Those who want fewer selections can try any/all of the following possibilities (in decreasing sample size and with this contest in mind)…
- Class 4/5 races : 150/894 (16.8% SR) for 380.9pts (+42.6% ROI)
- On turf : 89/692 (12.9% SR) for 327.3pts (+47.3% ROI)
- Andrew Mullen in the saddle : 96/652 (14.7% SR) for 89.8pts (+13.8% ROI)
- trips shorter than a mile : 86/556 (15.5% SR) for 148.5pts (+26.7% ROI)
Also, you can combine some of them to really draw down the number of bets you place and just one example is that the Mullen / Appleby / Turf / Class 4&5 handicap combo is worth 23 winners from just 185 runners (12.4% SR) for 67.8pts (+36.7% ROI).
Those figures above make Shipyard a valid contender for a bet on their own, but we should also note that the horse is making his yard debut (you should see TC on your racecards to denote this) after finishing 3rd on his Irish swansong in a decent contest at the Curragh 25 days ago.
Horses coming into the Appleby yard after runs for other trainers are 27/142 (19% SR) for 408.6pts (+287.8% ROI)…
of which, handicappers are 22/109 (20.2% SR) for 212.7pts (+195.1% ROI)…
of which, class 4 & 5 runners are 16/52 (30.8% SR) for 214.9pts (+413.3% ROI)…
of which, Andrew Mullen has 9 winners from 24 (37.5% SR) for 113.2pts (+471.6% ROI).
Shipyard was third last time out behind Dark Alliance who was subsequently only beaten by 3.75 lengths in a far better £46,000 top prize handicap at the Curragh last Saturday, whilst Shipyard‘s 3rd place finish can also be quantifiedby his beating of Anonymous Lady by a neck that day, after she has since reappeared and won by 3.25 lengths at Navan.
The collateral form from the Curragh looks good, as do the stats. This appears to be a weaker contest than that one 25 days and with the stats to back up the selection, I’m happy to take 3/1 BOG from Betfair Sportsbook for my 1pt bet on Shipyard here.
For a fuller market overview, once all the firms have shown their hands…
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