Double Dutch, 21st July 2015
Two nice winners at nice prices made for a great start to the new week, as Slipper Satin kicked things off with a fairly comfortable 8 lengths win by making all at Cartmel and the form she’s currently in means she’s worth keeping an eye out for again quite soon. Our other runner here, Urban Dusk was a solid if non-threatening third to give us a good base for race 2…
…which was a far tighter affair that Tom Sawyer just about took with a staying on finish to win by a neck with Bronze Beau a little disappointing back in 6th place, he best paert of 6 lengths adrift.
The icing on the cake came from Tom Sawyer’s drift from 5/1 to 6/1, giving us a double at 21.75/1, which effectively means the rest of the week’s bets are “free hits”.
Monday’s results were as follows:
Slipper Satin : WON at 2/1 (adv 9/4)
Urban Dusk : 3rd at 11/4 (adv 9/4)
Tom Sawyer : WON at 6/1 (adv 5/1)
Bronze Beau : 6th at 3/1 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
631 winning selections from 2218 = 28.45%
201 winning bets in 575 days = 34.96%
P/L : +136.81pts (+11.90% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
In an attempt to follow up yesterday’s success, we’ll try the…
Azergam has been running well of late on the A/W and was the runner-up in a couple of claimer/seller races at Wolverhampton at the beginning and end of June. He then transferred that form into a win in a 5f handicap stepping up in class at Bath last Tuesday, where he was pretty convincing in getting home by 3 lengths.
He’s obviously penalised for that win, but Mikey Ennis takes 5 of the 6lb rise off his back and for a horse who was a runner-up by a length over 6f off a mark 15lbs higher last year, this is still well within Azergam‘s reach at 3/1 BOG.
As for the second pick, I expect Mad Endeavour to just shade it ahead of Archie Stevens. Mad Endeavour got off the mark two starts ago with a win over this trip at Wolverhampton, but has actually ran better since in two fairly narrow defeats on decent ground on turf.
He was a little unlucky in running last time out at Chepstow, as he got blocked off a couple of times, but still had enough in the tank to recover to within 1.25 lengths of the winner and claimed third place. There are fewer runners here today to reduce traffic risks and running off the same mark, Mad Endeavour could be dangerous at 7/2 BOG.
My initial thoughts here are that the market has this right and that the prize is highly liklely to go to the two at the short end of affairs. Emily Davison is only 2lbs higher than when scoring over course and distance back in March and has made the frame on four of her subsequent six handicap runs since then.
Her last two runs have both been off today’s mark and she has finished 2nd and 3rd at a combined margin of defeat of just four lengths. Her jockey’s 5lb claim effectively puts her on a lower mark than those efforts and Emily Davison could repeat March’s C&D win here at 5/2 BOG.
Excellent Aim returns to the track after a break of just over three months, but that’s par for the course for this horse, who does tend to go well fresh. Last seen at Wolverhampton in mid-April, he was only beaten by a length and a quarter, having been reeled in and headed inside the final furlong of a 6 furlong contest.
He now drops down in trip to combat that weak finishing effort and if he comes here in the same mood/form as last time out, don’t be surprised to see him attempt to win this from the front and if he’s allowed to dictate, this could go to Excellent Aim at 100/30 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Azergam / Emily Davison @ 13/1 (3/1 & 5/2 : Betfred, Coral & Stan James)
Azergam / Excellent Aim @ 16.33/1 (3/1 & 10/3 : Coral & Stan James)
Mad Endeavour / Emily Davison @ 14.75/1 (7/2 & 5/2 : Bet365, Ladbrokes & SkyBet)
Mad Endeavour / Excellent Aim @ 17.78/1 (10/3 & 10/3 : Coral)