Double Dutch, 22nd July 2015
Tuesday wasn’t one of my better days of the 576 Double Dutches we’ve done so far. Admittedly, it wasn’t the worst of them, but just one placer from two 8-runner races isn’t good.
Excellent Aim was the placer, finishing as runner-up at Chelmsford, but pretty well beaten by 3.5 lengths in a 5f sprint with our other pick, Emily Davison back in 7th of the 8 runners, a further 5 lengths back.
That was all academic anyway, as we’d bombed out at Ffos Las earlier, where Mad Endeavour’s 4 length defeat in 4th lace was the best we could muster. Once again, we had the 7th horse home in an 8-runner race with Azergam beaten by almost 20 lengths!
A day to forget, as…
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
Mad Endeavour : 4th at 2/1 (adv 7/2)
Azergam : 7th at 5/1 (adv 3/1)
Excellent Aim : 2nd at 5/2 (adv 10/3)
Emily Davison : 7th at 7/2 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
631 winning selections from 2222 = 28.40%
201 winning bets in 576 days = 34.90%
P/L : +134.81pts (+11.71% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I’m expecting better from these for Wednesday…
I’ve a feeling that this could be a close-run thing between two runners who were both course and distance winners last time out.
A switch of yard and the pairing with 3lb claimer jockey has brought about some consistent form for Senor George, who has now finished 35231 in the five outings since the changes were made. He had to be restrained during his last run and the way he finished the race suggests this 8 yr old still had something left in reserve.
He will, of course, need to find a little bit more under a 6lb penalty, but the manner of his win last week does make today’s 5/2 BOG odds a viable proposition in a race, where his main rival is expected to be Strictly The One, who prevailed by just a neck over track and trip a fortnight ago. That said, other than a spin over hurdles in early June, it was his first outing in 6.5 months, so he might not have been as sharp as he’d like.
He’ll come on for having had that run and although that was his first crack at 1m5f, stamina shouldn’t be an issue for a horse with 9 NH runs at up to 2m4f under his belt and if you like him, he’s currently available at 7/2 BOG.
Off a mark of 85 gained via a win at Windsor a little over three weeks ago, Wekeyll is rated the best horse in the race and added to that he gets a healthy 8lb weight for age allowance which will really help his cause on hos handciap debut today. William Haggas’ horses are in good form, he has a good record on this track and is renowned for getting his handicappers to win on debut.
If that wasn’t enough, the form of Wekeyll‘s win LTO seems to be working out well. Two of the four immediately behind him that day have since reappeared and both have gone on to win and if you think our runner can complete a hat-trick of winners from Windsor, then he’s currently priced at 7/4 BOG : not the longest price ever, but good as half of a double.
I’d expect American Artist to be the main challenger here at 5/2 BOG. He won his second (and final) start of last season at Goodwood and although his two handcipa runs to date since then haven’t quite hit the same heights, he hasn’t let anyone down and there’s probably plenty more to come from him.
He was 7th of 10 off the back of a 30-week absence at Epsom in April, but was only beaten by two lengths after he weakened inside the final furlong, as he was probably entitled to. That close race has since produced 7 wins and 7 places from 30 subsequent rides from the runners that day, whilst American Artist was rested for another 11 weeks before running 6th of 12 at Kempton in a better race than this last time out.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Senor George / Wekeyll @ 8.63/1 (5/2 & 7/4 : Totesport)
Senor George / American Artist @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : Totesport)
Strictly The One / Wekeyll @ 11.38/1 (7/2 & 7/4 : Totesport)
Strictly The One / American Artist @ 14.75/1 (7/2 & 5/2 : Totesport)