Stat of the Day, 23rd July 2015
Although it was disappointing to see Magical Daze withdrawn from her intended run at Lingfield on Wednesday, there was a silver attached to the cloud in so much as it now means we’re guaranteed to make July yet another profitable month for SotD.
The key now is to put as many points on the board as we can, starting with Thursday’s…
And a bet on Temple Lord at 5/1 BOG with Bet365, Betfred or Totesport (I’ve used the latter) and here’s why…
He’s trained by Jonjo O’Neill who is (marginally) profitable to follow blindly here at Worcester, as his 74 winners from 376 runners (19.7% SR) since the start of 2008 have genertaed a modest 105pts (+2.79% ROI) profit. Now profit is profit, but I’m not going to start pitching SotD at such small returns, we need to see if there’s a logical of improving the numbers.
It turns out that his bumper runners although successful from a strike rate point of view, actaully lose money and his non-handicap record isn’t brilliant either and with today’s contest being a handicap hurdle, let’s look at Jonjo’s ‘cappers here at Worcester.
You’ll be pleased to hear that they are indeed nicely profitable, as the 50 winners from 243 (20.6% SR) have generated 64.2pts (+26.4% ROI) of level stakes profit at an attractive ROI of 26.4% and now we’re in business. A further logical step would be too look at his handicap hurdlers here and they’re 28 from 133 (21.1% SR) for 65pts (+48.9% ROI), with those runing on good to firm ground winning 10 of 40 (25% SR) for 34.2pts (+85.6% ROI).
Temple Lord comes here on the back of an 18-race losing streak (ouch! but I’ve done worse on SotD!) since winning on his last visit her to Worcester, but did show signs of a return to form when 4th at Southwell last time out on his hurdling debut. The return to familiar surroundings and the benefit of having had a run over hurdles are both sure to help, as is the fact he’s now rated some 20lbs lower than his last win.
I haven’t taken leave of my senses putting him up, as there are some positive signs to hand, he has won at this track and he has won 1of 2 at this grade and goes well on good to firm ground, but you might get more reassutance from the fact that since 2009, horses running in Class 4 & 5 handicap hurdles off a lower mark than their last win which was at least 10 runs ago are 125/613 (20.4% SR) for 100.2pts (+165.3% ROI) profit.
Of those 613 long-term losers, the record for those running off marks 10 to 24 lbs lower than their last win is 59/264 (22.4% SR) for 79.6pts (+30.2% ROI) profit, with those running on good to firm ground winning 14 of 41 (34.2% SR) for 30.9pts at an ROI of 75.3%.
Backing any horse after such a lengthy losing run is a bit of a leap of faith, but the stats say they do win often enough to follow, which is why I’m on Temple Lord at 5/1 BOG and to make your choice of the bookies…
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