Double Dutch, 24th July 2015
Bishops Leap defied a drift out to 7/2 to win at Newbury last night just about holding on to beat our other runner Royal Toast by a neck in the first of two tight finishes to our races.
I was happy they finished in that order as it’s the order I predicted and also because the forecast was higher that way round!
(We don’t officially advise/record forecasts, but many of you do play those bets. Those who do got a win at 10.86/1 here).
Then, 50 minutes later at Doncaster, the first three home were only separated by a neck and then a head, but unfortunately we just missed out, taking second and third place, as both Aljafer and Margaret’s Mission stayed on strongly, but couldn’t quite reel in the Johnston runner who had made all and just hung on.
So, a neck was all that separated us from a near 15/1 double on the day and we weren’t too far shy of a forecast double either, but a miss is as good as a mile in this game!
Thursday’s results were as follows:
Bishops Leap : WON at 7/2 (adv 9/4)
Royal Toast : 2nd at 9/4 (adv 5/2)
The forecast paid £11.86 to a £1 stake
Aljafer : 2nd at 7/4 (adv 5/2)
Margaret’s Mission : 3rd at 3/1 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
633 winning selections from 2229 = 28.40%
201 winning bets in 578 days = 34.78%
P/L : +130.81pts (+11.32% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
On a busy Friday, I’m going with these…
Keith Dalgleish has a good record here at Thirsk and backing his runners here blindly is profitable with an ROI of just over 61% and his entrant here, Dark Defender comes here seeking a hat-trick after career finishes of 611 to date. He won a maiden at Ayr over this trip almost 7 weeks ago and followed that up with another win at York last/next time out.
That York run was 13 days ago at a higher grade than this and was also his handicap (nursery) debut and he stayed on strongly to land the near £10k prize. He should come on for the experience and looks very progressive and the reason Dark Defender is as long as 11/4 BOG in places is presumably because of his wide draw, but stall 1 of 9 isn’t insurmountable and the price offers some value in my opinion.
The same 11/4 BOG can be had about Dutch Mist, who has been given a far better draw in stall 8 and also comes here on a hat-trick, after three impressive runs in the last seven weeks or so. Beaten by less than 2 lengths on debut over 5f in early June, she was staying on well at the finish and relished the step up to 6f next time out.
That next run proved to be a course and distance win here at Thirsk, where she beat Star Focus ( won next time out) by a length on similar good to firm ground as she’ll face today, before going on to win on her own handicap (nursery) debut at Chepstow next/last time out, 16 days ago at Catterick where she showed her resilience and versatility, digging deep to win on good to soft ground.
Receiving a pound from Dark Defender, she’d be my marginal pick here, but the better draw and the 3lb claim from the very capable Shane Gray make Dutch Mist my preferred option here today. Either way, I expect this to be a cracking race.
Apart from not winning, Stroke of Midnight has done little wrong of late, finishing as runner-up in her last three runs, going down by just a neck on her last two outings, firstly over 5f and then LTO stepped up to today’s 6f. She had to overcome a tricky draw at Lingfield last time out and expended too much energy chasing the leaders out wide, meaning she didn’t have enough left once in front and she got reeled in late on.
Despite there being 12 runners here, this does look a slightly weaker contest and with her trainer Richard Hannon having a good record (8/38 overall and 4/12 in maidens) here at this track, you’d expect another decent effort from Stroke of Midnight at 5/2 BOG, despite her seeming to always find one just too good.
And that could well be the case again this evening in the shape of Lavinia Rose, who is also priced up at 5/2 BOG in places and also comes here off the back of a good run as runner-up last time out. She was beaten by half a length behind Pop Culture at Newbury over today’s trip at Newbury 13 days ago, but had the rest of the 15-runner field spread out behind her (almost 4L back to the 3rd placed horse).
A similar level of performance might be enough here, but it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect Lavinia Rose to come on again for that run and with the Kingscote/Beckett combination a successful one at this track, we could be in for a tight finish and hopefully a DD 1-2!
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Dutch Mist / Lavinia Rose @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : Bet365 & Ladbrokes)
Dutch Mist / Stroke of Midnight @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : Paddy Power)
Dark Defender / Lavinia Rose @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : Bet365 & Ladbrokes)
Dark Defender / Stroke of Midnight @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : Stan James)