Double Dutch, 25th July 2015
Results continue to frustrate me recently on DD and just like Thursday, Friday presented us with a winner in race 1 followed by a runner-up and the third placed horse in race 2! This, of course, is reassuring that we’re on the right lines, but annoying nontheless!
As it was, Dutch Mist stayed on well to win by a length at Thirsk with the fairly disappointing Dark Defender 4 places and 4.5 lengths further back.
That meant we rolled on to Chepstow well placed to secure a 12.13/1 double, but although Stroke Of Midnight was a place and almost three lengths clear of Lavinia Rose, she couldn’t get near the winner who was cleberly ridden by Cathy Gannon on her own on the opposite side of the track.
Our runners “won” their race, but Thatsallimsaying had blazed up the stands side rail to score by a full five lengths. Hats off to the jockey there.
Friday’s results were as follows:
Dutch Mist : WON at 5/2 (adv 11/4)
Dark Defender : 5th at 9/4 (adv 11/4)
Stroke Of Midnight : 2nd at 2/1 (adv 5/2)
Lavinia Rose : 3rd at 6/4 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
634 winning selections from 2233 = 28.39%
201 winning bets in 579 days = 34.72%
P/L : +128.81pts (+11.13% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Saturday offers a last chance of the week to move the bottom line forward…
Around this time last year, Custom Cut was in the process of rattling up a 5-timer (2 x Listed, 2 x Gr3 and a Gr2) before going down to defeat on his last run of the season. But that was the Gr1 QE2 stakes at Ascot on heavy ground, so disgrace there. He picked up again this season by winning a Gr2 on his reappearnace and has run creditably in defeat on his other two runs since.
He was only beaten by 4.5 lengths in the Gr1 Lockinge and conditions look ideal here for him to resume winning ways. 1m2f mifght be new ground for him, but he has won here at York over 1m1f, he likes the quick ground and he’s 4/8 under Danny Tudhope. Custom Cut always goes well around this time of year and the current 3/1 BOG looks quite appealing.
He will, however, have to concede 3lbs to the French raider Prince Gibraltar, who might not be well known in the UK, but comes from France with solid credentials and proven stamina should push come to shove. He has wins at both Gr1 and Gr2 under his belt at this trip and over 2f further was 7th in last year’s Arc and was a very good second last time out in the Grand Prix de Chantilly (Gr2).
There are fears that the ground might be on the quick side for Prince Gibraltar, but that’s probably represented in his 3/1 BOG odds, he’d possibly be shorter on slower ground, but it would be foolish to ignore the chances of any horse that gets within 5 lengths of Treve!
Sweet P caught the eye when winning over 1m3f at Windsor almost three weeks ago, as she defied a break of 258 days to win quite colsily in the end. She looked to have plenty to spare at the end and eased down to a 1.75 length victory witht he rest of the 11-runner field pretty well spread out behind her. The runner-up and the third placed horse have both reappeared and won in the last week or so, suggesting the form is working out well from Windsor.
This is admittedly a tougher task stepping up in trip, but she’s by Sir Percy who won the Derby (9yrs ago now!) over this trip and whose offspring have a really good record at the trip and the fact she’s back amongst her own sex is a bonus and I’d not be surprised to see Sweet P go in again at a generally available 9/4 BOG (although Ladbrokes / SkyBet offer an extra 0.25pts).
The main threat looks like coming from the interesting looking Sherry, who started her career by running in four NH bumpers, winning over 1m4.5f on debut at Wetherby, a runner-up over 2m1f (soft) at Sedgefield and deemed good enough (if well-beaten) to contest a Listed bumper at Aintree in April, allocated a mark of 106.
These runs suggest stamina is no issue and she can carry weight! She’s currently rated at 80 (26lbs lower than in bumpers) and has run well since a switch to 1m4f on the Flat, beaten by less than 1.5L at Thirsk behind a subsequent winner, before winnig herself at the same track and her other run over this trip was also a 1L defeat at Beverley. All of which suggests she’ll be there or thereabouts again today and Sherry too trades around the 9/4 BOG mark.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Custom Cut / Sherry @ 12/1 (3/1 & 9/4 : Hills)
Custom Cut / Sweet P @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : SkyBet)
Prince Gibraltar / Sherry @ 12/1 (3/1 & 9/4 : Paddy Power)
Prince Gibraltar / Sweet P @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : SkyBet)