Stat of the Day, 27th July 2015
Saturday’s selection Camanche Grey was advised to you at 11/2 BOG and was heavily backed down towards 3/1 before being withdrawn due to the ground condition.
That was our second non-runner of the week, but with the other four runners finishing 3111 for over 10pts profit on the week, it was a very good week indeed and with profits of over 18.2pts for the month so far with only five betting days to go, we’re assured a decent return no matter what this week brings!
That said, I completed a hat-trick on Friday and I’d love to hit a 4-timer for you via Monday’s…
A Class 4, 1m5f handicap for nine 3yo+ handicappers on Good ground, where I’ve just placed a bet on the Joe Fanning-ridden and Mark Johnston-trained 3 yr old gelding, Chadic, who is currently (9.30pm, Sunday) priced at 11/4 BOG with both Coral & Hills, whilst Ladbrokes are offering the same price, but won’t go BOG until 9.00am on Monday.
Firstly, we should remind ourselves of the red-hot form of both jockey and trainer. Mark Johnston’s horses have won 16 of their 43 (37.2% SR) races in the last 7 days and a £10 bet on each of them would have netted you a cool £296 at an ROI of 68.8%. In the same time, his handicappers are 10/25 (40% SR) for 14.8pts (+59.2% ROI) profit.
And to Joe Fanning, who is 5/24 (20.8% SR) for 6.2pts (+25.8% ROI) in all races and 4/16 (25% SR) for 8.64pts (+54% ROI) in handicap contests, largely thanks to partnering the Johnston runners to 4 wins from 15 (26.7% SR) for 9.64pts (+64.3% ROI) in all races and they are 4/10 (40% SR) together in handicaps, producing 14.64pts at an ROI of 146.4%.
Mark only has one runner anywhere today, so Chadic is his only chance of success and looks to have been well placed as a 3yo in a 3yo+ handicap, as these younger ‘cappers get a weight for age allowance in open age handicaps and the longer the trip, the higher the allowance and at today’s 1m5f, Chadic gets a whopping 13lbs, effectively reducing his mark to a very winnable 72.
Not only does Chadic get this allowance, his trainer Mark Johnston is the absolute master at exploiting this rule to the maximum potential, especially over the longer trips.
Since 2008, the Johnston 3 yr olds in open age handicaps on the Flat at trips of 1m4f to 2m are 76/322 (23.6% SR) for 83.3pts (+25.9% ROI) profit (2/8 here at Ayr), with those priced at 2/1 to 8/1 winning 49 of 205 (23.9% SR) for 62.2pts (+30.4% ROI).
Joe Fanning has ridden 99 of those 322 runners and his 25 winners represents a very healthy 25.3% strike rate that has produced 24.3pts (+24.5% ROI), whilst his rides on horses priced at 2/1 to 8/1 has resulted in 17 winners from 64 (26.6% SR) and 32.9pts profit at an ROI of 51.5%.
This time last year, Chadic was running in Group races off a mark of 100! He lost his way somewhat in the second half of last season, but a dropping handicap mark and a couple of steps up in trip seems to have rejuvenated him of late.
Since moving up from his usual 7f/1m he has finished 2131, the latest effort being a 3.25 length success over 1m5.5f at Chester nine days ago, where he easily accounted for the well-fancied Cecil filly Distain. He’s never raced at this 1m5f trip before, but is 2 from 2 at 1m4.5f to 1m5.5f, so it’s fairly safe to assume that the trip won’t be an issue.
Then again, there aren’t many reasons why Chadic shouldn’t find the conditons untolerable at all here today. He’s 1 from 2 here at Ayr and 3 from 5 (14211) on good ground. He has already tasted success under Joe Fanning and has finished 12131 when priced below 4/1, so the market tends to be a good indicator of his chances.
He’s also 2 from 5 in the month of July, 3 from 9 in fields of less than 10 runners and 3 from 4 when racing with less than a fortnight’s rest since his previous outing. All three career wins have come on left handed tracks, he’s 2 from 4 at this Class 4 grade and has won twice from six efforts in blinkers.
The stats suggest he’ll go well, trainer and/or jockey form also point to a good run, whilst he seems to have conditions set to suit him, all of which point to Chadic going off somewhat shorter than my advised 11/4 BOG that I took from Coral, but time will tell!
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