Stat of the Day, 29th July 2015
No joy for us on Tuesday at Wolverhampton, where Llyrical ran out of gas with a furlong to go and was subsequently passed by four runners on his way to the line.
He had raced prominently, if a little wide, throughout the contest, but when push came to shove with little more than 200 yards to run, he was a spent force.
He stuck to his task gamely enough, but eventually came home 5th of the 10 runners, beaten by the best part of 7 lengths with the rest of the field strung out behind him. The market seemed to have his measure as, after a Rule 4 deduction, our bet was worth 3.2/1, but he was sent off slightly longer at 100/30.
So, still searching for a first winner of the week, Wednesday looks really tough from a stats point of view, so somethnig a little out of the norm for me via the…
And I say out of the norm, as it’s a rare SotD sortie to a Festival meeting, as I tend to leave the tipping for these races to the others here on Geegeez better qualified to do so, but one runner in this contest has some interesting stats to back up what is clearly decent form.
Which is why I’ve just backed Forest Maiden at 5/1 BOG, a price that was available with at least four bookies at 6.10pm on Tuesday evening.
She’s likely to go off shorter than that, so even at 5/1 in a big field, there could be some juice in the price in a race where 3yr olds have done well historically, aided by their healthy 9lbs weight for age allowance.
Her trainer, Charlie Appleby is in good form of late, saddling up 7 winners from 35 in the last two weeks, whilst jockey William Buick is also going well, having ridden 13 winners from 43 in the same timeframe and 8 from 20 in the last week alone.
Charlie’s record here at Goodwood is reasonable if not spectacular, but 6 winners from 35 (17.1% SR) have been enough to guarantee a profit of 15pts (+42.7% ROI) for his followers, whilst Mr Buick’s fans have been treated to 15 winners from 74 (20.3% SR) from their jockey over the last two seasons here at Goodwood.
Those brave enough to back each of the 74 rides have been rewarded with level stakes profits of 82pts at an ROI of 110.9%, which is great work if you’re on!
The Buick/Appleby partnership is tried and tested and if you wanted a simple system to follow, you could just back all their joint bookings in handicaps priced at 2/1 to 9/1. There are only 68 qualifiers to date, but 16 winners at an SR of 23.5% and 12.4pts profit at an ROI of 18.2% ROI are worth having.
If you wanted to be a bit more selective, as I know some of you like, backing those over trips of 7.5f to 1m4f pays well with 14 winners from 43 (32.5% SR) and 29.2pts (+67.8% ROI) profit.
As for Forest Maiden , she has won 4 of her 7 runs to date and is 1 from 1 under William Buick., She has won both her starts when asked to carry 9st 5lbs on the past and won on her only attempt at going right handed (which can be an issue for some horses). She now drops down in class from a Class 2 win at Newbury 11 days ago, which is interesting to me (and hopefully to you! 😀 ), because…
If you backed all Charlie Appleby’s runners at 8/1 or shorter, who were turned back out within 4 to 15 days of a top 4 finish last time out, you’d have not only bagged yourself 65 winners from 171 bets for a very healthy 38% strike rate, but you’d also have made yourself £287 (+16.8% ROI) to a £10/point level stake.
The strike rate and the ROI are both very acceptable to me, but as always, they can be improved in a whole host of ways, I’ve just picked four out for you today!
- Those placed 1st or 2nd LTO : 46/104 (44.2% SR) for 31.4pts (+30.2% ROI)
- 3 yr olds : 34/91 (37.4% SR) for 15.6pts (+17.2% ROI)
- Handicappers : 32/79 (40.5% SR) for 38.7pts (+49% ROI) and…
- Class 3 runners : 10/19 (52.6% SR) for 15.6pts (+81.9% ROI)
All of which are excellent returns, despite being fairly small sample sizes. The sample sizes are small, because there’s only a couple of years worth of data with Charlie being a relatively “new” trainer and one very small microsystem to come from the above only had the first runner on 24th August 2013 (23 months ago), but…
…if you were to back the Appleby runners in Class 2 or 3 handicaps at odds of 7/1 or shorter, 4 to 15 days after a top 3 finish, you’d have 13 winners from 23 (56.5% SR) and 270.5pts profit at an ROI of 119.6%.
Finishing on an ROI of 100% is a good place to stop bombarding you with figures, so I’ll call time on this write-up by reminding that I’ve taken 5/1 BOG about Forest Maiden, a price still available at 8.25pm Tuesday with Betfair’s Sportsbook and Ladbrokes (although the latter is non-BOG until 9.00am). E/W backers can get 4 places, but I’m on to win only!
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS