Double Dutch, 30th July 2015
Even after a 10p Rule 4 deduction, both our runners in our opening race smashed their SP, with First Sargeant performing best for us, wining by 2.25 lengths at 7/4. That gave us almost 1.75pts running on to the later race at Sandown, where…
…we also had a 10p Rule deduction to contend with, but once again we were comfortably well ahead of SP as Decorated Knight just about got the better of Pyjama Party in the closing stages for a 1-2 finish for us and a 7.95/1 double on the day with the added bonus of a 3.4/1 exacta.
Obviously we’d have been better off had Pyjama Party been able to hold on, but beggars can’t be choosers and it was at least good to break the run of near misses.
Wednesday’s results were as follows:
First Sargeant : WON at 7/4 (adv 11/4 = 99/40 after R4)
Invigorate : 6th at 5/2 (adv 7/1 = 6.3/1 after R4)
Decorated Knight : WON at 5/4 (adv 7/4 = 63/40 after R4)
Pyjama Party : 2nd at 5/2 (adv 10/3 = 3/1 after R4)
The exacta was worth 3.4/1 here.
Results to date:
639 winning selections from 2249 = 28.41%
202 winning bets in 583 days = 34.65%
P/L : +125.28pts (+10.75% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Thursday’s selected races are…
One Pekan interests me here, as he’s only raced four times (3 x C2 and a C3 LTO) since winning a Class 3 handicap over today’s trip at Epsom 11 months ago. He performs well on any ground condition, but wouldn’t mind a bit of rain and it’s quite possible he’ll get some. He has been running well enough of late at a higher grade, including a 2 length defeat in third place in a £32,000 race at Chester two starts ago. He now drops to Class 4 racing after 7 runs in better company and that has to give him a real chance at 7/2 BOG.
I don’t see the favourite to be the one to challenge him either, as I expect Royal Altitude to be the main rival here. He carries very little weight thanks to his 10lbs weight for age allowance and if he comes here in the same frame of mind as his last outing, where he was only beaten by 1.25 lengths behind an 85-rated runner with no allowances, then he should be in the mix again and if that’s the case, then Paddy Power’s 5/1 BOG might prove to be very generous indeed.
Guiding Light looks the one to beat here at 9/4 BOG, hailing from the in-form Andrew Balding yard who have had 17 winners from 85 (20% SR) in the last month and are 5/20 in the last week. The horse has won two of his last three starts and acts on most ground conditions. The same jockey is on board as when he was last seen winning by 11 lengths on soft ground at Chepstow six days ago.
The main danger will probably come from the 7/2 BOG Dear Bruin who was also a winner last time out, as recently as Saturday when scoring by five lengths on good to soft ground at Lingfield. It’s no coincidence, that she too is turned out so quickly under a penalty before any reassessment kicks in and she’ll want to continue her recent progressive form that has seen her finish 3321 since being fitted with cheekpieces.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
One Pekan / Guiding Light @ 13.63/1 (7/2 & 9/4 : Bet365 & BetVictor)
One Pekan / Dear Bruin @ 19.25/1 (7/2 & 7/2 : Bet365 & BetVictor)
Royal Altitude / Guiding Light @ 17/1 (5/1 & 2/1 : Paddy Power)
Royal Altitude / Dear Bruin @ 23.75/1 (9/2 & 7/2 : Bet365 & Hills)