Stat of the Day, 30th July 2015
A rare SotD sortie to a major Festival didn’t bear fruit I’m afraid as a third place finish at our adsvised odds of 5/1 was the best that Forest Maiden could manage for us.
She broke well and seized the initiative in a bid to make all, but as they rounded the home turn, I could hear the warning bells, as she hadn’t put anywhere near enough distance between herself and the pack by the time she hit the 2 pole.
Her lead was gone by the 1 pole and from that point, although she stayed on well enough, was pretty one paced and eventually run out of it by a couple of faster finishers. Third in a 14-runner handicap at a Festival is no disgrace and those of you who went E/W at least got something back, but for my records, it’s a point dropped and one I want back as I return to familiar SotD territory in Thursday’s…
A Class 5 handicap for six runners over a mile and half a furlong on good ground and a 3/1 BOG bet on Fantasy Gladiator.
The bulk of the selection process revolves around the trainer, the jockey and the track and the way they all interact with each other. I’ll try to set it out in some form of logical order, but with the three being intertwined, I can’t promise!
Let’s start with the trainer Mick Appleby and his stats in flat handicaps in the period 2010/15, which are : 92/700 (13.1% SR) for 333.1pts (+47.6% ROI). From this base stat, we can draw down to the following…
- horses ridden by Andrew Mullen : 41/305 (13.4% SR) for 103pts (+33.8% ROI)
- those running at Nottingham : 23/111 (20.7% SR) for 123.6pts (+111.3% ROI)
- Notts runners priced 2/1 to 6/1 : 15/40 (37.5% SR) for 39.9pts (+99.8% ROI)
- Notts, 2/1 to 6/1, ridden by Mullen : 8/15 (58.3% SR) for 26.3pts (+175.2% ROI)
As intimated above, Andrew Mullen is today’s jockey and his own personal record here at Nottingham stands at 16 winners from 108 (14.8% SR) for 47.8pts at an ROI of 57%, broken down again as follows…
- handicaps : 14/83 (16.9% SR) for 50.5pts (+75.4% ROI)
- on the Appleby string : 12/53 (22.6% SR) for 47.8pts (+90.1% ROI)
- on the Appleby handicappers : 11/43 (25.6% SR) for 53.9pts (+125.4% ROI)
And they now team up with Fantasy Gladiator, a nine year old gelding who certainly doesn’t mind coming here, having won two of four visits (1712) all over today’s course and distance.
In all he’s 2 from 5 at this trip, 1 from 3 with Andrew Mullen, but 1 from 1 here (over C&D) and the market is usually a very good indicator of his chances, as he has 6 wins and 10 places from 19 runs at 9/2 or shorter, with the six winners not only giving a strike rate of 31.6%, but also level stakes profits of 10.3pts at an ROI of 54.2%.
I’ve taken 3/1 BOG with Bet365, but as of 6.40pm on Wednesday, at least four other firms were offering the same deal, so…
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