Double Dutch, 1st August 2015
One winner paired with a runner-up from our two races yesterday wasn’t quite enough to give us a profitable day to end July with.
Powderonthebonnet was well supported at Bangor (11/10 from 5/2) and the 7 yr old gelding stayed on well to assert himself in the closing stages to win by 2 lengths, with our other runner, Amuse Me, a good 21 lengths back in 4th place.
But there was only my personal pride at stake there anyway, as our bet had floundered in Goodwood’s opening race, as 2nd and 5th was the best I could get.
Connecticut weakened late on and was beaten by 5.5 lengths, whilst 15/8 favourite The Corsican didn’t (in my opinion) really do himself justice. Poor tactics or bad luck in running? Maybe both, but give Frankie Dettori a lead with a furlong to run in a festival race and he’s hard to beat, as we and Jim Crowley got reminded yesterday!
Friday’s results were as follows:
The Corsican : 2nd at 15/8 (adv 15/8)
Connecticut : 5th at 5/2 (adv 10/3)
Powderonthebonnet : WON at 11/10 (adv 5/2)
Amuse Me : 4th at 3/1 (adv 11/4)
Results to date:
640 winning selections from 2257 = 28.36%
202 winning bets in 585 days = 34.53%
P/L : +121.28pts (+10.37% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Saturdays are always tough, but I’m hoping to start the month off with the winners of…
With 13 winners from 29 runners over the last fortnight, any Roger Varian runner has to be considered for backing at the moment and when you recall his excellent figures in flat handicaps and also with handicap debutants, it’s easy to see why I like Alizoom here.
He has improved in each of his four runs to date, culminating in a near 4 length win at Windsor almost 3 weeks ago. Based on that run, an opening mark of 79 doesn’t look too punitive and with more than useful 3lb claimer Shane Gray in the saddle to ease the burden, it’s Alizoom here for me at 15/8 BOG.
As a backup, I’m inclined to go with Astley Hall now that Richter Scale doesn’t go. He was narrowly beaten in a similar nursery at York a week ago when beating the favourite that day and the re-opposing Ravenhoe by a good 5 lengths. It’s not the greatest form in the world, but it’s probably the best on offer here after Alizoom, so for that reason, Plan B is Astley Hall at 11/4 BOG.
Where it could pay to side with a pair of last time out winners.
As above, Master Of Speed is of interest, with him being trained by Roger Varian and making his handicap debut. He defied a 227-day layoff to in at Sandown by 1.5 lengths over 1m2f seven weeks ago and is of interest again now that he steps up in trip to 1m4f, as his yard also do really well with handicap debutants stepping up in trip.
I won’t bore you with all the stats about the above facts, but needless to say, they do point to a good run from Master of Speed at 9/4 BOG.
And his most likely opponent should be Lilian Baylis, whose trainer Luca Cumani is also in fine form and has a very good record when stepping his unexposed runners up in trip, and with him having a good record here at this track, this makes this 3 yr old filly a major player here for me.
She only just got home late on over 1m2f last time out and looked to be crying out for further, which she ill of course get today and those Cumani stats in Donny handicaps? 22/94 (23.4% SR) for 29.5pts (+31.4% ROI) since 2008, making Lilian Baylis very attractive here at 5/2 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Alizoom / Master Of Speed @ 8.34/1 (15/8 & 9/4 : Coral)
Alizoom / Lilian Baylis @ 9.06/1 (15/8 & 5/2 : Coral)
Astley Hall / Master Of Speed @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : Bet365)
Astley Hall / Lilian Baylis @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : Bet365)