SotD, Monday 3rd August 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 3rd August 2015

Henpecked hit the front on Saturday with two furlongs to run and I thought we were in the box seat for a winning start to the new month.

Unfortunately the 14/1 outsider of the 7 runners, Frightened Rabbit has other ideas, firstly reining our runner in with a furlong to go and then opening up a lead of more than 3 lengths by the time they hit the line.

Advised at 7/2, some of you got 4/1, which despite the loss is excellent value about a 7/4 runner-up, but that doesn’t pay the bills. I now seek a first win in August via Monday’s…

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6.45 Carlisle :

Where I’ve just taken 5/1 BOG about the 5yr old Gelding, Red Invader for this 5f, Class 6 handicap.

He has finished 113 in his last three outings, all over today’s 5f trip with the last two coming under the steering of today’s 5lb claimer jockey Rachel Wilson.

Quite often in these Pro-Am Ladies races, there’s a general lack of familiarity between the jockeys and their horses, but Rachel knows Red Invader well and has won on him twice to date.

He’s running over his preferred trip of 5f , where he has 3 wins and a place from 5 outings and was denied a hat-trick when beaten by 2.75 lengths at Ayr last time out, doing all his best work late on, staying well and suggesting today’s stiffer track will suit him better.

Since the start of the 2o12 season, 5f flat runners aged 3 to 5 who finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out 16 to 60 ago and were winners two starts ago, bounced back to winning ways on 41 of 213 (19.25% SR) occasions generating level stakes profits of 142.4pts at an ROI of 66.9%.

Those priced at 5/2 to 11/2 won 23 of 90 (25.6% SR) for 38.6pts (+42.8% ROI) and 5 yr old geldings won 6 of 30 (20% SR) for 34.6pts (+115.2% ROI).

Not the easiest race to call, but I think 5/1 BOG about Red Invader is generous and that’s with any of Bet365, SkyBet and/or BetVictor and you can take your pick when you…

…click here for the betting on the 6.45 Carlisle

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Here is today’s racecard.

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