Stat of the Day, 4th August 2015
An excellent day for SotD on Monday, as we grabbed our first (of hopefully many!) winner of the month (in fairness, only the second pick!) courtesy of a run that was worrying, brilliant and nerve-wracking at different times over just five furlongs by our 5/1 shot Red Invader.
He was worryingly slow away from the stalls and also when running very wide, but was brilliant in the way he seemed to glide past all in front of him to assert a decent lead with a furlong to run and then came the nerve-wracking finale to the race.
Did he idle when in front, did Rachel Wilson ease him down a little too soon? We’ll never know, but I’d guess it was a bit of both and in the end, there was no harm done as they’d already put enough between themselves and the pack to hold on to win by a neck.
The icing on the cake came in the form of a drift from an alreasdy generous looking 5/1 out to 6/1 at the off, setting us up nicely for the week ahead and I aim to keep the ball rolling in Tuesday’s…
Which is a six furlong, Class 5 open age (3yo+) handicap on good to soft ground, where eight rivals will attempt to deny Alaskan Wing a third win in four starts, a task that the 3yr old gelding is priced up at 100/30 BOG (Hills) to complete.
As many of you know, I keep a large stock of microsystems which poiint me in the direction of making a shortlist for my SotD selections and occasionally (but not very often!), I’ll draw on the same stat two days running, especially if its a microsystem that’s in form!
So, like Red Invader yesterday, Alaskan Wing has finished 113 in his last three outings and now returns to the track to run over 6f after a short break. I said yesterday, that since the start of the 2o12 season, flat runners aged 3 to 5 who finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out 16 to 60 days ago and were winners two starts ago, were profitable to follow at trhe shorter race distances.
Well, those competing over trips of 5f to a mile are 220/1204 (18.3% SR) for 321.7pts at an ROI of 26.7%, with those beaten by 0.25 to 2 lengths last time out returning to winning ways on 101/478 (21.1% SR) occasions, generating level stakes profits of 233.6pts (+48.9% ROI).
Those narrowly beaten (as above) who then ran at odds of 2/1 to 8/1 are 81 from 323 (25.1% SR) for 177.4pts (+55% ROI) adding a further layer of reasoning to the pick.
Alaskan Wing‘s latest run was 19 days ago, which should be enough to freshen him up after attempting to land an 8-day hat-trick last month. He only went down by half a length having been caught late on and looking a little tired towards the finish, so the rest should help.
Also in his favour is his profile with this race in mind, as he’s 2/3 here at Catterick (2/2 in hcps). He has won 3 of 5 races on good to soft ground (12113, all in hcps) and he is 2 from three at today’s 6f trip, also all in handicap company.
He has won three of his eight runs in races of 6 to 10 runners (3/6 in 6-10 runner handicaps) and probably more relevantly, he is 2 from 2 over course and distance here at Catterick, both on good to soft ground, one with 6 runners and the other with 10 and one of those was at today’s Class 5 level.
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