Stat of the Day, 5th August 2015
It’s not often we get to Wednesday chasing a hat-trick, but that’s where we’re at after Alaskan Wing got home by a neck at an SP of 3/1, which mirrored my advised 10/3 BOG after the dreaded 10p Rule 4 was deducted.
And just like Red Invader on Monday, our runner chose to do it the hard way to win by a similar margin. He virtually fell out of the stalls, almost went to his knees, but was up as quick as a flash and was at the front of the pack after about 100 yards!
He seemed to waste valuable yardage going very wide around the bend for home and didn’t seem like having enough to pass the leader, until just getting his nose in front in the closing strides to give us a second winner of the week for 9pts profit in two days.
It has been a remarkable few months for SotD with 38 winners from 100 runners since April 1st and almost 78pts to boot and I know I keep saying it, but the bubble might have to burst soon, but hopefully not tomorrow, because I’d like a hat-trick via the…
A ten-runner, Class 4 maiden over six furlongs on good ground, where I’m expecting a good run for money from Richard Fahey’s grey filly Sunnua, who is priced up at 5/2 BOG in her bid to get off the mark at the fourth time of asking here.
Some of the stats I dig up for you for SotD are bit obscure/leftfield but valid nonetheless, however I have a very simple system for Richard Fahey horses running at Pontefract that can be summed up in just three words….
Back them all!
Blindly backing Richard’s runners here for the past seven seasons (including this one!) has made a profit in six of those years and overall you’d have backed 59 winners from 295 runners (20% SR) and a £20 bet on all of them would have seen you collect profits of £3310 or 56.1% of all your stakes. NBot bad work from blindly backing a trainer.
Obviously he does better with certain types than others, but the break down of his winners here gives me even more confidence / optimism about Sunnua‘s chances, because (in descending number of runners)…
- his 6f runners here are 22/109 (20.2% SR) for 129.5pts (+118.8% ROI)
- his 2 yr olds are 18/76 (23.7% SR) for 132.4pts (+174.3% ROI) here
- At Class 4 level, they are 17/74 (23% SR) for 55.1pts (+74.4% ROI)
- his maidens are 16/72 (22.2% SR) for 121.2pts (+168.3% ROI)
- fillies are 14/67 (20.9% SR) for 77.5pts (+115.7% ROI)
- and those ridden by Tony Hamilton are 15/65 (23.1% SR) for 41.7pts (+64.2% ROI)
Obviously there’s great consistency in those numbers and you could mix and match those subsets to your heart’s content, but you’d end up with a very small sample size. If you did, however, want a small microsustem with fewer than the 45 runners a year Richard seems to send here, you could try the following Fahey runners at Pontefract…
…those running at trips of 5 to 8 furlongs at Classes 2 to 5 which gives 45 winners from 185 (24.3% SR) and level stakes profits of 195.2pts (+105.5% ROI) off around 25-30 bets a season.
Sunnua was third on debut over 5f on good to soft ground at Hamilton before finishing as a runner-up over this track and trip, giving up valuable experience of this course. After that run, she was deemed good enough to be sent to the 22-runner, Class 2, 5f Weatherby’s Super Sprint, where as you’d expect she came up a bit short!
She wasn’t, however dissgraced by any means in finishing 15th of 22, but only beaten by 5 lengths in a really tight race earning her self a mark of 76, but she was only 2 lengths behind Belvoir Bay who has since won a Class 2, 6f handicap off a mark of 84 at Goodwood last week.
So, if Sunnua runs to her mark or runs to within two lengths of Belvoir Bay’s recent effort, then I’d expect us to happy about taking a price of 5/2 BOG despite it being at the lower end of where I like to be for SotD, as she looks dangerous receiving 5lbs from her rivals here. I think she’s likely to go off a bit shorter, so take the value whilst you can.
My 5/2 BOG bet on Sunnua is with the Betfair Sportsbook, but when I wrote this piece, that price was also available with Bet365 and BetVictor.
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