Stat of the Day, 6th August 2015
The hat-trick bid didn’t come to fruition at Pontefract, I’m afraid and whilst you could point to Sunnua not getting a clear run in the final furlong, I think you’d be clutching at straws.
She was already struggling to go with the pace from over a furlong out and as it happens, the market called her chances spot on. She was well backed from my advised overnight 5/2 to around the 7/4 mark by 10.00am, but drifted out a whole point to an SP of 11/4.
That’s a massive drift at those odds and it was proven right on this occasion, as the best she could manage was 6th of 8, beaten by the best part of four lengths in the end.
The good thing about a daily service, is that we get a shot at getting our money back very quickly and I hope to do just that in Thursday’s trip to the seaside for the..
Where I’ve just taken 3/1 BOG with Totesport about Andrew Balding’s 4yr old filly, Cape Victoria.
Let’s talk about the horse herself first in respect of today’s race, shall we?
She’s 1 from 1 at this track and 3 from 5 at today’s 1m4f trip, of which she’s 2 from 3 on turf. Her only previous visit here was a course and distance success two starts ago on the only previous occasion that she has been ridden by today’s jockey, the promising claimer Edward Greatrex.
She has won both her previous starts in cheekpieces, she’s 3 from 5 going left handed and 2 from 4 in this Class 4 grade and has finished 311 when running within four weeks of her last outing. When Cape Victoria gained that C&D victory here two starts ago, she beat Stosur by 2 lengths with that horse since going on to win at Bath six days ago.
Her trainer, Andrew Balding, is successful if not over-represented here at brighton, with just 69 runners here in the last eight seasons. Yet, 13 of the 69 (18.8% SR) have been winners, producing modest but useful profits of 8.25pt at an ROI of 12% (lower than we’d like for SotD, but better than the banks!).
His Brighton runners are 3/8 (37.5% SR) for 13.6pts (+170.5% ROI) at this 1m4f trip and they are 3/9 (33.3% SR) for 7.33pts (+81.4% ROI) in this Class 4 grade, whilst overall his runners priced at 9/1 and shorter are 13/54 (24.1% SR) for 23.25pts (+43.1% ROI).
We should also note that Andrew does well when sending former C&D winners back to the scene of their triumph, especially coming off a good run last time out.
In fact since 2008, the Balding handicappers with CD next to their name on the racecard who were also winners last time out (anywhere, any trip) are 19/63 (30.2% SR) for 17.7pts (+28.1% ROI) with 3 winners from 8 at 1m4f and 6 winners from 22 at Class with anoverall record at odds of 6/4 to 13/2 that reads 14/46 (30.4% SR) for 14.5pts (+31.4% ROI) profit.
Slightly smaller sample sizes than I’ve used in the past, but the two balding stats allied to Cape Victoria‘s race profile suggest we stand a good chance of collecting from a 3/1 BOG bet. As I said at the top, I used Totesport this time, but to see a fuller market for this contest…
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