Double Dutch, 6th August 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 6th August 2015

Groundhog Day!

As seems to be the case of late, the picks aren’t bad, but not quite good enough to get home and so it proved once again.

At Ponty, both selections drifted markedly in the betting prior to the off and Chiswick Bey ran best for us, just going down by 0.75 lengths as an 11/2 runner-up with the 5/1 Danas Present 5.25 lengths and 3 places further back.

This rendered the Newcastle contest as little more than a pride-salvaging mission, but the fact that Pacngo’s 3.5 length defeat back in third place was the best I could manage, not even my pride remained intact.

As is often the case for us Lancastrians, Yorkshire was a bit of an anti-climax! 😀  This time however I mean the horse, not the noisy neighbours, which came home well beaten by 11 lengths in 7th of 8 runners.

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Tuesday’s results were as follows:

Chiswick Bey : 2nd at 11/2 (adv 10/3)
Danas Present : 5th at 5/1 (adv 2/1)
Pacngo : 3rd at 5/2 (adv 5/2)
Yorkshire : 7th at 3/1 (adv 9/2)

Results to date:
643 winning selections from 2273 = 28.29%
202 winning bets in 589 days = 34.30%

Stakes: 1177.50pts
Returns: 1290.78pts
P/L : +113.28pts (+9.62% ROI)


Looking for a change in fortune via these on Thursday…

5.20 Southwell :

Since 2009, trainer Hughie Morrison has a decent 23.5% strike rate here on the A/W at Southwell, whilst jockey Martin Harley has won 20 of his 95 rides here. They are both profitable to follow blindly here at this track and today they team up with Sleep Easy, a 3yr old son of Rip Van Winkle, whose offspring have an 18% strike rate on the all-weather at trips of 6 to 13 furlongs. You can get 5/2 BOG about Sleep Easy today.

My other pick here is the lightly (3 so far) raced Storm Check, who represents Saeed bin Suroor today. A lack of time and space prevent me from listing the full story, but this horse ticks many boxes with regards to the trainer’s optimum racing conditions ie a switch from turf to A/W, a hcp debut, hcp debut stepped up in trip, the weight for age system and 3yo’s stepped in trip, all of which are area that Saeed excels in, making Storm Check very interesting here at 11/4 BOG.


7.00 Southwell :

Another Martin Harley mount expected to go well here is Ians Memory, it’s widely accepted that USA-bred runners perform well here at Southwell and trainer Jeremy Noseda has an excellent record in A/W handicaps and if you tie the two together with the info that this horse is 3131 over a mile on A/W this year, including a course and distance win on his only previous visit, then Ians Memory has to be on the shortlist at 7/4 BOG.

Similarly priced at 7/4 BOG is another former course and distance winner Showboating, whose last run was an impressive 6 lengths win over this track and trip just 10 days ago, notching his second win in four starts at this venue. He’s up 6lbs for that win, but the manner of hs victory last time out, when he could have won by twice the distance had he wanted to, suggests more would be needed to stop him!

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Sleep Easy / Ians Memory @ 8.63/1 (5/2 & 7/4 : generally)
Sleep Easy / Showboating @ 8.63/1 (5/2 & 7/4 : generally)
Storm Check / Ians Memory @ 9.31/1 (11/4 & 7/4 : Betfred, Stan James, Totesport)
Storm Check / Showboating @ 9.31/1 (11/4 & 7/4 : Betfred, Stan James, Totesport)

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