Stat of the Day, 7th August 2015
Cape Victoria was disappointing at Brighton on Thursday afternoon, it has to be said. I thought Edward Greatrex had her in just the right position, tracking the leaders ready for a run, but when asked to give a bit more 2f from home, there wasn’t much response from the filly.
She looked decidedly one-paced on the run-in and in the end, she finished a good 5.5 lengths off the pace in 6th of 9 runners. Even her jockeys 5lb claim wasn’t enough to counteract top weight and her recent exertions and I’d assume she’ll rest for a while now.
No rest for me, though, as I now look for a winner for you from Friday’s cards and I’ve gone for an unlikely sort of contest for SotD in the …
Which is a 7f, Class 5 seller featuring six lightly raced 2 yr olds and a couple of debutants and whilst it’s not the normal kind of race I put up for this feature, I think there’s an angle or two to be explored around my 7/2 BOG selection, Sixties Pilgrim.
Firstly, she’s a daughter of one of my favourite runners from the mid-2000’s, Sixties Icon, but that has nothing to do with her selection other than a bit of rare sentimentality on behalf of this old cynic here. She is, more pertinently/relevantly, trained by Mick Channon of the twirling arm goalscoring celebration and Mr Channon’s record here at Newmarket isn’t bad at all, despite not having too many runners here.
And since 2009, his Newmarket runners priced at 5/2 to 13/2 are 6 from 26 (23.1% SR) for 13.7pts (+52.8% ROI) with those competing at trips of 6-7 furlongs winning 5 of 20 (25% SR) for 11.6pts (+58% ROI).
He also has a decent record in these seller races and since 2008, the market seems to a good indicator of his runners’ chances, as those priced at 4/1 or shorter have won 40 of 104 (38.5% SR) races, generating level stakes profits of 20.6pts (+19.8% ROI) and to show I’m not leaning/relying on old data to support my case, his record in sellers since the start of 2014 is 89 from 14 (68.3% SR) for 14.7pts (+105.1% ROI).
This is just Sixties Pilgrim‘s second outing to date, having been beaten by 8.5 lengths on debut when finishing 7th of 14 at Leicester nine days ago. She wasn’t expected to do much that day, according to the market as she was sent off at 28/1, but she certainly wasn’t disgraced and is sure to come on for the run and will benefit from having had recent raceday experience.
I’d expect improvement from her anyway, as Mick Channon’s horses do tend to come on for having made their debut and under certain circumstances, there’s money to be made from these inexperienced runners!
Since 2009, Mick Channon’s Flat runners making their second start, having failing to make the first three home on debut and were beaten by 2 to 10 lengths, then went on to win second time out on 21 of 123 occasions whe priced in the very broad 6/4 to 14/1 price range. This 17.1% strike rate has, so far, yielded level stakes profits of 44.4pts at an ROI of 36.1%.
In the context of today’s race, those 123 runners can be broken down as follows…
- 2yr olds : 20/113 (17.7% SR) for 51.4pts (+45.5% ROI)
- females : 10/63 (15.9% SR) for 26.7pts (+42.4% ROI)
- 2yo females : 10/57 (17.5% SR) for 32.7pts (+59.3% ROI)
- 2yo females @ Class 5 : 5/22 (22.7% SR) for 34.2pts (+155.4% ROI)
Sixties Pilgrim‘s breeding suggests that a step up to 7f won’t be a problem as she’s likely to need futher in the future and although I don’t bet in sellers too often, I think we’ve an excellent chance of cashing in a 7/2 BOG bet on Sixties Pilgrim today. I went with Bet365 at 9pm and the price was still there at 11.15pm on Thursday evening with a couple of their rivals offering 100/30 BOG.
Once the full market is open, you’ll be able to…
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