Double Dutch, 7th August 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 7th August 2015

We didn’t exactly make enough profit to retire yesterday, so I’m back again this morning finally relieved to have broken what seems like a never-ending run of near misses.

Sure, nobody’s getting rich off 0.5pt doubles at 8.63/1, but they’re a start and they’re also far better than the 9/2 we’d have got paid out at SP!

Sleep Easy and Ians Memory were our winners and with Showboating the next home in race 2, there was the small added bonus of an exacta at 5/2.

Thursday’s results were as follows:

Sleep Easy : WON at 7/4 (adv 5/2)
Storm Check : 4th at 9/4 (adv 11/4)
Ians Memory : WON at Evs (adv 7/4)
Showboating : 2nd at 13/8 (adv 7/4)
The exacta paid £3.50 here.

Results to date:
645 winning selections from 2277 = 28.33%
203 winning bets in 590 days = 34.41%

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Stakes: 1179.50pts
Returns: 1295.59pts
P/L : +116.09pts (+9.84% ROI)


I could now do with a double double from these Friday fancies, which are mainly derived from a stats perspective, although they should go well regardless…

2.00 Musselburgh :

Tholen is trained by Mark Johnston who has a near-20% strike rate at this track in the last four seasons with his 2 yr olds winning 13 of 47 (27.7% SR) for 40.9pts (+86.9% ROI). Those running at Class 5 are 6/14 (42.9% SR) for 12.14pts (+86.7% ROI) , whilst the 7f runners are 5/19 (26.3% SR) for 9.26pts (+48.7% ROI)

Combined, the Johnston 2yo’s are 3/5 (60% SR) at odds of 7/2 and shorter for 2.9pts (+58% ROI) in C5, 7f races and Tholen can be backed at 7/4 BOG.

Poplar Close makes a handicap debut for David O’Meara here today and in the last four seasons, the yard is 19/93 (20.4% SR) for 73.3pts (+78.9% ROI) and in the same time time frame, the team’s Musselburgh handciappers priced at 5/1 and shorter are 15/42 (35.7% SR) for 19.67pts (46.8% ROI).

The yard is in good nick, having hit 9 winners from 37 in the last week alone and if you think Poplar Close could be number 10, you can get 4/1 BOG on that happening.


2.30 Musselburgh :

Like Tholen above, Plagiarism is another 2yo from the Mark Johnston yard, so the reasons above suggest he’ll go well here and I should also point out that this 13/8 BOG chance is ridden by Joe Fanning and that’s relevant, because…

…since 2008 the combination of Johnston / Fanning / Musselburgh is 45/173 (26% SR) for 74.7pts (+43.2% ROI) with non-handicap races providing 18 winners from 59 (30.5% SR) and 45.3pts (+76.7% ROI) of level stakes goodness, which backs up the claims of Plagiarism here.

Whereas Glenrowan Rose represents Keith Dalgleish whose record is Musselburgh non-handciaps id decent although not outstanding at 9/63 (14.3% SR), but the returned profits of 93.3pts (+148% ROI) are fantastic. His 2 yo’s non-hcps are 8/44 (18.2% SR) for 100.8pts (+229.1% ROI), whilst over 5f he is 5/24 (20.8% SR) for 80.3pts (+334.4% ROI).

The Dalgleish 2yo, non-handicappers over 5f at Musselburgh are 4/22 (18.2% SR) for 70.8pts (+321.9% ROI) and if you like Glenrowan Rose, 7/2 BOG is available.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Tholen / Plagiarism @ 6.22/1 (7/4 & 13/8 : Coral & Betfair)
Tholen / Glenrowan Rose @ 11.38/1 (7/4 & 7/2 : BetVictor)
Poplar Close / Plagiarism @ 12.13/1 (4/1 & 13/8 : Betfair)
Poplar Close / Glenrowan Rose @ 19.25/1 (7/2 & 7/2 : BetVictor)

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