Stat of the Day, 8th August 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 8th August 2015

Another good run from a SotD horse benefiting from perfect jockey tactics at Newmarket on Friday evening meant a third winner of the week at a decent value price too.

John Egan settled Sixties Pilgrim in the second wave of runners poised for a late run and when the line of horses ahead of them parted with less than two furlongs to run, our duo seized their opportunity immediately, leading by the one pole and putting the race to bed very quickly indeed.

The chasing pack had no answer for our runner’s turn of foot and by the time our filly hit the line, she was three and a half lengths clear of the runner-up in a comprehensive victory.

The final cherry on the cake was taking 7/2 BOG last night and getting paid out at double the 7/4 SP. I’d like for nothing more than a fourth winner of the week and that quest takes me North of the Border for Saturday evening’s…

7.40 Ayr :

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A Class 4, 3yo+ handicap sprint over 5f on good to soft ground (at present!), where Michael Dods’ 6 yr old mare Gowanharry will attempt to make it third time lucky in recent course and distance runs and is priced at 11/4 BOG with Bet365 amongst others to do so.

On first inspection, a horse with a 0/8 record at this track, all over course and distance, isn’t an obvious pick, but regular readers will know that I’m not one for picking the obvious! Yes, she is 0 from 8 here over course and distance, but she has made the frame in 7 of those 8 races, finishing as a runner-up on four occasions, going down by a short head, 0.75L, a neck and 0.5L in those defeats.

The last two of those runs were as recently as 19 and 33 days ago respectively, so despite not quite getting her nose in front, she’s clearly in good nick and it could be argued (by me, anyway!) that this is possibly the weakest race she’s contested for a while.

Now, having a horse with a 0 from 8 record at a track can be damaging for a trainer’s figures, but despite her frequent crossbar-rattling, trainer Michael Dods does well enough here at the track, which is probably why he’s persisting with her at this venue, because if truth be told, with a little luck she could well be 4/8, but that is, admittedly, pure conjecture.

And so, to Michael Dods…

Since the start of the 2010 campaign, his handicappers here at Ayr in the very broad 2/1 to 16/1 price range are 23 from 1438 (15.5% SR) for 31.6pts (+21.4% ROI) and whilst those ballpark figures are good enough to base any selection upon, it doesn’t hurt to drill down further. So, from the 148 qualifying runners…

  • those aged 3 to 8 are 22/129 (28.75% SR) for 44.3pts (+34.3% ROI), of which…
  • …those with 2 to 25 previous handicap runs are 19/106 (17.9% SR) for 43.8pts (+41.4% ROI), of which…
  • …those racing within 45 days of their last outing are 19/93 (20.4% SR) for 56.8pts (+61.1% ROI).

Paul Mulrennan is in the saddle…

And he generally teams up well with Michael Dods, including a 3 from 10 record already this month, but more specifically and relevant to the contest in hand, Paul has ridden 10 winners from 47 rides (21.3% SR) on board Michael Dods handicappers here at Ayr since the start of the 2008 campaign. Those winners have generated profits of £207 to a £10 level stake, which is a 44.1% return on your money.

Of the 47, there’s a 6/18 ( 33.33% SR) record producing 28pts (+155.8% ROI) profit from 5/6 yr old horses, whilst those priced up at 6/1 and shorter have won 9 of 23 (39.1% SR) for 27.6pts (+119.9% ROI).

The Paul Mulrennan / Michael Dods / Ayr handicaps / 5-6 yr olds at 6-1 and shorter combination has 5 winners from 10 runners (50% SR) and 18.9pts (189% ROI) profit to date and I’m hopeful that Gowanharry will improve those numbers today!

As I intimated at the top of the piece, I took my 11/4 BOG from Bet365, but as of 10.45pm on Friday night, at least 4 other firms were offering the same price, so you should all manage to get on at those odds.

Once the full market is open, you’ll be able to…

…click here for the betting on the 7.40 Ayr

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.


Here is today’s racecard.

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